For the last few years, Turkmenistan has been ruled by the father and son tandem of Gurbanguly and Serdar Berdymukhamedov. Their power-sharing arrangement began in 2022 when Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov stepped down as president in favor of his son and became the head of the People’s Council of Turkmenistan. Now, though, the tandem has become a triumvirate with the emergence of a third key player: Serdar’s sister, Oguljahan Atabayeva.
Atabayeva has suddenly taken on a public role, and is regularly shown on state-owned television. So rapid has been her rise that it is fueling speculation that she is poised to take over from Serdar. It has long been rumored that Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov is unhappy with how his son is running the country, and at the very least, Atabayeva’s prominence suggests he’s still looking for ways to tweak the system he created.
As in other Central Asian countries, officials in Turkmenistan tend to be very private where information about their families is concerned. Nevertheless, relatives usually end up playing a major role in running the country. This is not simply nepotism: blood ties are seen as the ultimate guarantor of loyalty.
The most high-profile posts tend to go to sons, sons-in-law, and nephews. But some of the most powerful figures in Central Asia are women. Dariğa Nazarbayeva in Kazakhstan and Gulnara Karimova in Uzbekistan were once considered the anointed successors to their president-fathers. Saida Mirziyoyeva, the daughter of the Uzbek president, and Ozoda Rahmon, the daughter of Tajikistan’s president, head up presidential administrations of their fathers and are considered to be among the countries’ most influential officials.
Until recently, little was known about either of Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov’s daughters, Oguljahan and Gulshan. They both lived abroad and avoided publicity. Oguljahan’s husband, Dovlet Atabayev, worked in the Turkmen embassy in London before the couple returned home in 2019.
At the end of 2024, however, Atabayeva suddenly emerged as one of Turkmenistan’s most powerful officials. On paper, her role does not sound particularly senior: she is vice president of a children’s charity. In practice, she oversees the cultural and social spheres, as well as takes part in charity events and major conferences. Her public appearances are covered in detail by the tightly controlled state media, which is a sure sign they are approved by the country’s leadership. Atabayeva is also increasingly visible internationally, meeting with Saida Mirziyoyeva in Uzbekistan, and hosting the Kazakh health minister, as well as officials from Türkiye and Iran.
Her meteoric rise has taken place amid persistent rumors that Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov is disappointed in his son. Serdar has been president for over three years, yet his father has not retired from politics, and remains involved in all major political decisions. Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov sometimes even represents Turkmenistan abroad for events that ostensibly require the attendance of a head of state.
This all begs the question: why did Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov transfer power in the first place? He’s only sixty-seven years old, and appears to be in good health. Presidential term limits could easily have been overcome through a referendum.
One explanation is the unrest that erupted in Kazakhstan in January 2022 and resulted in the former president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, losing control of his successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The violence not only led to fatalities, it also precipitated Nazarbayev’s fall from grace and a purge of symbols of the former regime (including statues of Nazarbayev himself). It would appear that Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov wanted to ensure this never happened in Turkmenistan.
Immediately after becoming president, Serdar tried to make his mark, carrying out a series of firings and hirings, including of close relatives. The first to be targeted were those close to his cousins on his father’s side: the influential tycoons Hajymyrat and Shamyrat Rejepov. Then Serdar removed his aunt Gulnabat Dovletova as head of the Turkmenistan Red Crescent Society.
Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov did not immediately get involved. Soon, however, Serdar’s independence began to cause him real concern, and he made himself head of the People’s Council of Turkmenistan. The rise of Atabayeva seems to be part of the same process of Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov trying to show that he remains in control. He doesn’t necessarily want to replace his son, just remind him that there are limits.
Serdar’s recent activity suggests he is listening. In December 2024, he awarded Atabayeva the Arkadag medal: a state award created in honor of his father. Then, Hajymyrat and Shamyrat Rejepov were returned to the fold.
If promoting Atabayeva was supposed to limit Serdar’s autonomy and help the Berdymukhamedov family consolidate its grip on power, why was she chosen in particular? The answer seems to lie in foreign policy calculations. The war in Ukraine and the halt in supplies of Russian gas to Europe have increased the West’s interest in Central Asia—in particular in Turkmenistan, which has some of the world’s biggest natural gas reserves. Turkmenistan is increasingly seen as an alternative gas supplier to Russia.
All of this is putting pressure on Turkmenistan—long known as a hermit kingdom—to open up to the world. International delegations have been seen more and more frequently in Ashgabat, and discussions recently restarted about the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, which would deliver Turkmen gas via Azerbaijan and Türkiye to the European Union (bypassing Russia). There is also renewed interest in the so-called Middle Corridor, a transport route between Europe and China passing through Türkiye, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.
Turkmenistan’s traditional suspicion of the outside world is a major barrier to all these initiatives. Investors are understandably wary of an authoritarian, opaque regime that has no stable institutions and lacks a proper legal system. For the moment, therefore, there are unlikely to be any major foreign investments.
Atabayeva’s prominence, however, may be a sign of impending change. Her fluent English, charitable work, and meetings with foreign officials should go some way toward improving Turkmenistan’s international image—and showing that the country is ready for modernization. Turkmenistan has never had a First Lady, and even Serdar Berdymukhamedov’s wife has only appeared once in public. Atabayeva’s cosmopolitanism means that she could easily step into such a role.
