In The Media
John Judis
{
"authors": [
"John Judis"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE
In The Media
Obama and the College-educated Vote
My esteemed colleague Noam Scheiber has suggested that Barack Obama’s results in the Philadelphia suburbs did not possess the significance I attributed to them. Clinton’s advantage there, he suggests, didn’t show that she was cutting into Obama’s prior advantage among affluent, educated voters--voters that have made up much of his white support.
By John Judis
Published on May 23, 2008
Source: New Republic
My esteemed colleague Noam Scheiber has suggested that Barack Obama’s results in the Philadelphia suburbs did not possess the significance I attributed to them. Clinton’s advantage there, he suggests, didn’t show that she was cutting into Obama’s prior advantage among affluent, educated voters--voters that have made up much of his white support. Noam might be right about these suburbs, although I think that if you looked at the Democratic primary voters in Philadelphia’s Montgomery County (where the Main Line runs), you would find that a lot of them are from the educated, affluent part of the county. I am not prepared to look into the returns that closely. But I don’t think you have to do so to make the general point about Obama’s vote in the Pennsylvania primary that I was trying to make by pointing to these counties. Let’s just look at his margin among college-educated voters and voters with post-graduate degrees in Pennsylvania and in other states.
What these results show is that Obama’s advantage among college-educated voters and voters with post-graduate degrees suddenly disintegrated in Pennsylvania. You’ll find a very similar pattern if you look at the “affluent” side of the vote. In Pennsylvania, Clinton won voters who make between $100,000 and $149,999 by 62 to 38 percent. Obama won these voters in most others states. For instance, in Texas he won them by 53 to 46 percent and in Missouri by 60 to 40 percent.
What might have happened in Pennsylvania, I suggested, was that Obama’s image became tarnished by his being associated in voters’ minds with Pastor Wright and, to a lesser extent, with Tony Rezko and Bill Ayers. I can’t prove this, but I think I have shown that (contrary to the Obama campaign’s press release) a change in the composition of Obama’s vote did take place in Pennsylvania, and it may turn out to be significant.
About the Author
John Judis
Former Visiting Scholar
As a visiting scholar at Carnegie, Judis wrote The Folly of Empire: What George W. Bush Could Learn from Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
- This Election Could be the Birth of a Trump-Sanders Constituency
- Policy ChopsIn The Media
John Judis
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- How Far Can Russian Arms Help Iran?Commentary
Arms supplies from Russia to Iran will not only continue, but could grow significantly if Russia gets the opportunity.
Nikita Smagin
- The Kremlin Is Destroying Its Own System of Coerced VotingCommentary
The use of technology to mobilize Russians to vote—a system tied to the relative material well-being of the electorate, its high dependence on the state, and a far-reaching system of digital control—is breaking down.
Andrey Pertsev
- Notes From Kyiv: Is Ukraine Preparing for Elections?Commentary
As discussions about settlement and elections move from speculation to preparation, Kyiv will have to manage not only the battlefield, but also the terms of political transition. The thaw will not resolve underlying tensions; it will only expose them more clearly.
Balázs Jarábik
- Where Does the Split in the Ruling Tandem Leave Kyrgyzstan?Commentary
Despite its reputation as an island of democracy in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan appears to be on the brink of becoming a personalist autocracy.
Temur Umarov
- In Uzbekistan, the President’s Daughter Is Now His Second-in-CommandCommentary
Having failed to build a team that he can fully trust or establish strong state institutions, Mirziyoyev has become reliant on his family.
Galiya Ibragimova
