Source: Ifri Security Studies Center Proliferation Paper No. 24

In a new Proliferation Paper published by the Institut Français des Relations Internationales' (Ifri) Security Studies Center, Ariel E. Levite examines the evolution of the global nuclear order since the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945 to present by breaking down the sixty-plus years of nuclear history into three analytically distinct "ages," each lasting roughly twenty years. By doing so, Levite traces back the roots of the current nuclear predicament to some early seeds of trouble which have gradually grown more profound. He attributes much of the unraveling of the nuclear order to:

1. Certain inherent weaknesses in the original NPT formula;
    
2. Changes in the global distribution of power since the codification of the nuclear order in the 1960s;
    
3. The dissemination of nuclear weapon technology; and
    
4. Complacency and subsequent disillusionment with the nuclear order since the early 1990s.

The paper further analyzes what could precipitate a new nuclear age around 2010. Levite argues that such a "fourth nuclear age" would likely be characterized by either a nuclear anarchy, which he believes has become the default option, or a more benign nuclear order manifested by lower numbers of weapons and stringent controls and restrictions on remaining nuclear arsenals and activities. He concludes by considering the more pressing requirements for regaining nuclear stability.

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