The Problem with Nuclear Mind Reading

{
  "authors": [
    "James M. Acton"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Korean Peninsula"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "NPP",
  "programs": [
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "East Asia",
    "North Korea"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Nuclear Policy",
    "Nuclear Energy"
  ]
}

In The Media

The Problem with Nuclear Mind Reading

The IAEA places importance on a state's intentions, something which its investigatory arm does not and cannot assess. The effect of emphasizing intent is to cause discussions about enforcement that descend into irresolvable arguments about ambiguous activities, thus reducing the chances of decisive action and, in turn, reducing the credibility and effectiveness of the nonproliferation regime.

By James M. Acton

Published on Feb 1, 2009

Source: Survival

The basic technologies that underlie nuclear power were first developed during the Second World War by the United States for purely military purposes. Since then, extensive civilian research and the use of nuclear technologies for peaceful ends has not erased this military heritage. Almost all nuclear technology in use around the world today is ‘dual use’, able to contribute to the production of fuel for nuclear reactors or the explosive components of nuclear weapons. For this reason, there is serious concern that supposedly peaceful nuclear programmes are being used for, or could become, cover for the development of nuclear weapons.

About the Author

James M. Acton

Jessica T. Mathews Chair, Co-director, Nuclear Policy Program

Acton holds the Jessica T. Mathews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Recent Work

Other
Unpacking Trump’s National Security Strategy
- +18
  James M. Acton, Saskia Brechenmacher, Cecily Brewer, …
Commentary
Trump Has an Out on Nuclear Testing. He Should Take It.
- James M. Acton

Nuclear Policy Nuclear Energy East Asia North Korea

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Commentary
Carnegie Politika
For Putin, Increasing Russia’s Nuclear Threat Matters More Than the Triad’s Modernization
For Putin, upgrading Russia’s nuclear forces was a secondary goal. The main aim was to gain an advantage over the West, including by strengthening the nuclear threat on all fronts. That made growth in missile arsenals and a new arms race inevitable.
Maxim Starchak
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Russia’s Latest Weapons Have Left Strategic Stability on the Brink of Collapse
The Kremlin will only be prepared to negotiate strategic arms limitations if it is confident it can secure significant concessions from the United States. Otherwise, meaningful dialogue is unlikely, and the international system of strategic stability will continue to teeter on the brink of total collapse.
Maxim Starchak
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Russia-Türkiye Ties Falter Amid Stresses of Ukraine War
Mutual suspicion between Moscow and Ankara is growing as Türkiye cozies up to Washington and NATO while reducing its dependence on Russian energy.
Ruslan Suleymanov
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Iran’s Twelve-Day War Has Only Boosted Its Cooperation With Russia
Tehran’s most urgent task is to reduce the risk of further Israeli and U.S. airstrikes. Russia’s role as a deterrent in this respect is more multifaceted than simply supplying weapons, whose real impact will only become apparent many years from now.
Nikita Smagin
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
How the Kremlin Lost Trump
The collapse of the Budapest summit is an inevitable result of the Russian system of artificially creating foreign policy crises in order to achieve a desired outcome.
Alexander Baunov

The Problem with Nuclear Mind Reading

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

For Putin, Increasing Russia’s Nuclear Threat Matters More Than the Triad’s Modernization

For Putin, upgrading Russia’s nuclear forces was a secondary goal. The main aim was to gain an advantage over the West, including by strengthening the nuclear threat on all fronts. That made growth in missile arsenals and a new arms race inevitable.

Maxim Starchak

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Russia’s Latest Weapons Have Left Strategic Stability on the Brink of Collapse

The Kremlin will only be prepared to negotiate strategic arms limitations if it is confident it can secure significant concessions from the United States. Otherwise, meaningful dialogue is unlikely, and the international system of strategic stability will continue to teeter on the brink of total collapse.

Maxim Starchak

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Russia-Türkiye Ties Falter Amid Stresses of Ukraine War

Mutual suspicion between Moscow and Ankara is growing as Türkiye cozies up to Washington and NATO while reducing its dependence on Russian energy.

Ruslan Suleymanov

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Iran’s Twelve-Day War Has Only Boosted Its Cooperation With Russia

Tehran’s most urgent task is to reduce the risk of further Israeli and U.S. airstrikes. Russia’s role as a deterrent in this respect is more multifaceted than simply supplying weapons, whose real impact will only become apparent many years from now.

Nikita Smagin

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

How the Kremlin Lost Trump

The collapse of the Budapest summit is an inevitable result of the Russian system of artificially creating foreign policy crises in order to achieve a desired outcome.

Alexander Baunov