A More Balanced View of Asia's Rise

{
  "authors": [
    "Minxin Pei"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "United States",
    "South Asia",
    "India",
    "East Asia",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Economy",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

A More Balanced View of Asia's Rise

Fears about Asia’s rise warrant a more balanced and critical look. China and India's international standing should not be overstated because both face serious economic and social constraints that will limit their growth.

By Minxin Pei

Published on Aug 13, 2009

Source: WBUR Radio Here and Now

The alarm about the rise of Asia and the decline of America are largely exaggerated. A more balanced and critical look at trends suggests that Asian countries, particularly China and India, are not poised to take over the reigns of world leadership anytime soon. Even at current economic growth rates, average per capita income in Asia is not expected to reach U.S. levels for nearly 80 years. Asian countries also lack well-developed understanding and support for key values such as multilateralism, human rights, and other international public goods that define the contemporary world order. These failings, combined with a relative lack of innovation, internal challenges to national cohesion, and problems posed by environmental degradation, suggest Asia will continue to face many constraints and its rise should not be overstated by the West.

About the Author

Minxin Pei

Former Adjunct Senior Associate, Asia Program

Pei is Tom and Margot Pritzker ‘72 Professor of Government and the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College.

Recent Work

In The Media
How China Can Avoid the Next Conflict
- Minxin Pei
In The Media
Small Change
- Minxin Pei

Political Reform Economy Foreign Policy United States South Asia India East Asia China

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Russia Is Exporting Its Fuel Crisis to Central Asia
When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.
Galiya Ibragimova
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Russia Is Approaching a Political Crossroads
Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart.
Tatiana Stanovaya
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?
Ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment as such, but with political control.
Balázs Jarábik
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Where Are President Tokayev’s Political Reforms Leading Kazakhstan?
Tokayev’s predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, outlined arrangements for a power transition too soon and in too much detail, ultimately losing control over the process. Tokayev is determined not to meet the same fate.
Temur Umarov
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Parliamentary Elections in Occupied Ukraine Risk Backfiring for the Kremlin
Despite unhappiness on the ground, Moscow is determined to use both carrot and stick to ensure there is record support for United Russia in occupied Ukraine.
Konstantin Skorkin

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Russia Is Exporting Its Fuel Crisis to Central Asia

When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.

Galiya Ibragimova

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Russia Is Approaching a Political Crossroads

Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart.

Tatiana Stanovaya

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?

Ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment as such, but with political control.

Balázs Jarábik

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Where Are President Tokayev’s Political Reforms Leading Kazakhstan?

Tokayev’s predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, outlined arrangements for a power transition too soon and in too much detail, ultimately losing control over the process. Tokayev is determined not to meet the same fate.

Temur Umarov

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Parliamentary Elections in Occupied Ukraine Risk Backfiring for the Kremlin

Despite unhappiness on the ground, Moscow is determined to use both carrot and stick to ensure there is record support for United Russia in occupied Ukraine.

Konstantin Skorkin