Article
Marina Ottaway, Omar Hossino
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"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
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Source: Getty
In The Media
Hosni Mubarak Staying Put - What Now?
What happens next in Egypt depends on what steps the military and the protesters take, not on what Washington says.
Published on Feb 11, 2011
Source: Politico
The speech suggests that Mubarak is in denial about the seriousness of the situation Egypt is facing and the extent of popular anger. His defiance has decreased the possibility that Egypt will experience an orderly transition. Instead, it appears increasingly likely that the military will intervene, because the government is completely discredited at this point and there is no other entity in the country that can start a credible transition process. Unfortunately, military intervention is not a promising beginning for what Egyptians hope will be a democratic transition.
The Obama administration cannot influence the course of events in Egypt. Future developments depend on what steps the military and the protesters take, not on what Washington says. But the Obama administration needs to salvage what little credibility it still has in the Arab world. Washington has no control over what Egypt’s government, its military, and its people will do, but it has control over its own decisions: the best it can do is to announce that it is suspending all aid to Egypt until the situation is clarified and that it stands ready to move back in quickly when Egyptians have found a way forward.
About the Author
Marina Ottaway
Former Senior Associate, Middle East Program
Before joining the Endowment, Ottaway carried out research in Africa and in the Middle East for many years and taught at the University of Addis Ababa, the University of Zambia, the American University in Cairo, and the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa.
- Reactions to the Syrian National Initiative
- Slow Return to Normal Politics in EgyptArticle
Marina Ottaway
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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