Research
- +6
Yasmine Farouk, Nathan J. Brown, Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, …
{
"authors": [
"Michele Dunne"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [
"Arab Awakening"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North Africa",
"Egypt",
"Middle East"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Working With the Opposition
While there is no risk-free change in a country that has been under authoritarian government for so long, Egyptians today face the real possibility that they will soon have the right and the ability to choose and to change their government for the first time ever.
Published on Feb 11, 2011
Source: New York Times
The military, or perhaps the new civilian leadership, will need to clarify the path forward toward constitutional reform to allow free elections. These steps will be essential to persuade protesters to begin leaving the streets and it is hard to see how military leaders can avoid them even if their ultimate intentions are not clear.
There will be many indications in the coming days of whether military leaders can leave behind old ways and move in the direction of democracy. Lifting the state of emergency immediately would be a critical signal; it is not as though Egypt lacks a regular penal code that would allow arrest and prosecution of those committing crimes.
Welcoming all relevant opposition and protest groups to participate in negotiations with the government, and being a bit patient with such groups as they attempt to organize themselves in the coming days and weeks, would bode well. Allowing the state-run media to report freely on developments, as they suddenly began to do in the last few days, and allowing a wide range of opinions to be expressed there would be good signs, whereas attempts to manipulate or mislead public opinion through such media would be ominous.
Even if military leaders believe they must lead the country toward democracy, there are many pitfalls along the way that could change their minds. Restarting Egypt’s economy and meeting what might be unrealistic expectations for prosperity are likely to prove difficult and might well lead to fresh protests. A resurgence of terrorism, sectarian tensions, or any form of external security threat could raise tensions between the military and civilians dangerously.
Yet it is important to keep in mind that, while there is no risk-free change in a country that has been under authoritarian government for so long, Egyptians today face the real possibility, if not the certainty, that they will soon have the right and the ability to choose and to change their government for the first time ever.
About the Author
Michele Dunne
Former Nonresident Scholar, Middle East Program
Michele Dunne was a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on political and economic change in Arab countries, particularly Egypt, as well as U.S. policy in the Middle East.
- Islamic Institutions in Arab States: Mapping the Dynamics of Control, Co-option, and Contention
- From Hardware to Holism: Rebalancing America’s Security Engagement With Arab StatesResearch
- +8
Robert Springborg, Emile Hokayem, Becca Wasser, …
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Will the Far Right Change Europe’s Russia Policy?Commentary
The European far right might fail to steer EU policy in the direction Russia wants, but they will create enough chaos inside Europe to benefit the Kremlin.
Dimitar Bechev
- Leaving Russian-Speakers Without Representation Is a Risk for LatviaCommentary
If the Russian-speaking community in Latvia cannot articulate their interests without being seen as disloyal, they could end up embracing a pro-Kremlin agenda.
Sergejs Potapkins
- Putin Has Been a Hindrance, Not a Help, to United Russia’s Election CampaignCommentary
Russia’s ruling party would have benefited from Putin appearing as its distant patron, but as an active frontman imposing his views on the public, he has done nothing but harm both the party’s election campaign and the ruling system overall.
Andrey Pertsev
- Ten Years After Karimov’s Death, How Much Has Uzbekistan Really Changed?Commentary
In the tenth year of his presidency, President Mirziyoyev’s system is becoming even more personalized than that of his predecessor Karimov.
Galiya Ibragimova
- As a Former Defense Minister Revolts in Ukraine, Is Zelensky’s System Fracturing?Commentary
The greater threat to Zelensky comes not from Fedorov alone, but from the convergence between the former defense minister’s political campaign and the anti-corruption investigations moving ever closer to the presidential administration.
Balázs Jarábik
