Death of North Korea's Leader Brings Hope, Fears of Instability

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In The Media

Death of North Korea's Leader Brings Hope, Fears of Instability

The death of Kim Jong Il marks the beginning of a succession process that may last months or even years, as his son and designated heir Kim Jong Un attempts to consolidate power among the ruling elite.

By Douglas H. Paal

Published on Dec 19, 2011

Source: Madeleine Brand Show

Speaking on the Madeleine Brand Show, Carnegie's Douglas Paal explained that the death of Kim Jong Il marks the beginning of a succession process that may last months or even years, as his son and designated heir Kim Jong Un attempts to consolidate power among the ruling elite. For its part, the United States should remain particularly cautious and prepare for possible contingencies. While North Korea has yet to fully convert its nuclear materials into fully deliverable weapons, its artillery could pose a serious threat to neighboring South Korea. A split within the North Korean military could also produce domestic instability or even a civil war, with devastating consequences, Paal concluded.

About the Author

Douglas H. Paal

Distinguished Fellow, Asia Program

Paal previously served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International and as unofficial U.S. representative to Taiwan as director of the American Institute in Taiwan.

Recent Work

Paper
America’s Future in a Dynamic Asia
- Douglas H. Paal
Q&A
U.S.-China Relations at the Forty-Year Mark
- +1
  Douglas H. Paal, Tong Zhao, Chen Qi, …

Security Military Foreign Policy Nuclear Policy East Asia North Korea

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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