Commentary
Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Russia",
"Eastern Europe",
"Ukraine"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
The Brink of War in Ukraine?
The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.
Published on Mar 1, 2014
President Putin has received approval from the upper house of parliament to use Russian military forces in Ukraine. Even before this, Russian troops were sighted landing in Crimea.
The wording of Putin's request does not refer to Crimea, but rather to Ukraine. Russian forces will stay in Ukraine until "normalization of the situation" there. The implication of the request is that there is no legitimate authority in Ukraine after the February 21 agreement between Yanukovych and the opposition had been broken by the Maidan and the opposition. There is no mention of the Ukrainian military in the request either. The country is considered essentially in a state of chaos, which presents a danger to the Russian citizens, compatriots, and military personnel in the territory of Ukraine.
Thus, I would not rule out a military operation in Ukraine not limited to Crimea, but also covering eastern and southern regions of the country. The Ukrainian turmoil has pushed Russia to looking for a solution to the Ukrainian issue that would probably include a Crimea within the Russian Federation and eastern and southern regions of Ukraine forming a separate entity integrated with Russia economically and aligned with it politically. It is not clear at this point whether Kiev will be left to build a rump Ukraine with the western regions or whether it will be swayed to join the eastern regions.
The situation is extremely tense. The Russian parliament even asked Putin to recall the ambassador to the United States in response to President Obama's recent reference to the "high price" Russia would pay for intervening in Ukraine. Russia and the West find themselves on the brink of a confrontation far worse than in 2008 over Georgia.
About the Author
Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?Commentary
Ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment as such, but with political control.
Balázs Jarábik
- Building Mini-Refineries Will Not Solve Russia’s Gasoline CrisisCommentary
Official discussions about mini oil refineries are unlikely to come to anything—but the mere fact they’re happening reveals the regime is failing to deliver a functioning economy.
Sergey Vakulenko
- Are Russia’s Influential Rotenberg Brothers Headed for a Fall?Commentary
The security forces are targeting Arkady and Boris Rotenberg’s patronage network—and in Putin’s Russia, it’s extremely hard to stop a purge once it’s under way.
Mikhail Komin
- What Should We Take From Andrey Melnichenko’s Essay in the Economist?Commentary
Andrey Melnichenko’s essay offers no answer to the fundamental question of how, under any kind of negotiated settlement, Europe can protect itself from the Russian ressentiment that is inevitable in all scenarios except for an outright victory for Putin.
Leonid Bershidsky
- Parliamentary Elections in Occupied Ukraine Risk Backfiring for the KremlinCommentary
Despite unhappiness on the ground, Moscow is determined to use both carrot and stick to ensure there is record support for United Russia in occupied Ukraine.
Konstantin Skorkin
