Commentary
Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Russia",
"Eastern Europe",
"Ukraine"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
The Brink of War in Ukraine?
The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.
Published on Mar 1, 2014
President Putin has received approval from the upper house of parliament to use Russian military forces in Ukraine. Even before this, Russian troops were sighted landing in Crimea.
The wording of Putin's request does not refer to Crimea, but rather to Ukraine. Russian forces will stay in Ukraine until "normalization of the situation" there. The implication of the request is that there is no legitimate authority in Ukraine after the February 21 agreement between Yanukovych and the opposition had been broken by the Maidan and the opposition. There is no mention of the Ukrainian military in the request either. The country is considered essentially in a state of chaos, which presents a danger to the Russian citizens, compatriots, and military personnel in the territory of Ukraine.
Thus, I would not rule out a military operation in Ukraine not limited to Crimea, but also covering eastern and southern regions of the country. The Ukrainian turmoil has pushed Russia to looking for a solution to the Ukrainian issue that would probably include a Crimea within the Russian Federation and eastern and southern regions of Ukraine forming a separate entity integrated with Russia economically and aligned with it politically. It is not clear at this point whether Kiev will be left to build a rump Ukraine with the western regions or whether it will be swayed to join the eastern regions.
The situation is extremely tense. The Russian parliament even asked Putin to recall the ambassador to the United States in response to President Obama's recent reference to the "high price" Russia would pay for intervening in Ukraine. Russia and the West find themselves on the brink of a confrontation far worse than in 2008 over Georgia.
About the Author
Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Will the Far Right Change Europe’s Russia Policy?Commentary
The European far right might fail to steer EU policy in the direction Russia wants, but they will create enough chaos inside Europe to benefit the Kremlin.
Dimitar Bechev
- Have U.S.-Belarusian Negotiations Stalled?Commentary
Minsk clearly expected the dialogue with Washington to yield more results, in particular the lifting of EU sanctions and permission to export potash.
Artyom Shraibman
- Leaving Russian-Speakers Without Representation Is a Risk for LatviaCommentary
If the Russian-speaking community in Latvia cannot articulate their interests without being seen as disloyal, they could end up embracing a pro-Kremlin agenda.
Sergejs Potapkins
- Putin Has Been a Hindrance, Not a Help, to United Russia’s Election CampaignCommentary
Russia’s ruling party would have benefited from Putin appearing as its distant patron, but as an active frontman imposing his views on the public, he has done nothing but harm both the party’s election campaign and the ruling system overall.
Andrey Pertsev
- The Kremlin Can No Longer Postpone Hard Economic DecisionsCommentary
Depleted financial reserves and a shrinking tax base mean it is no longer possible to simultaneously deliver high defense spending, price stability, and economic growth.
Alexandra Prokopenko
