Commentary
Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East allows Moscow to both increase its influence in Tehran and continue to enjoy the financial windfall of higher oil prices.
Nikita Smagin
{
"authors": [
"Chrystia Freeland",
"Michael McFaul",
"John Mearsheimer",
"Dmitri Trenin",
"Roger Cohen"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"Russia",
"Eastern Europe",
"Ukraine",
"Western Europe"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Foreign Policy",
"Global Governance"
]
}
Source: Getty
Russia, Ukraine, and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?
Ukraine is the most important strategic issue for Russia, and Putin, who mistrusts the West, worries that NATO enlargement may concern Ukraine.
Published on Jun 25, 2014
Source: Chatham House
Chrystia Freeland, a member of the Canadian Parliament, Michael McFaul, U.S. Ambassador to Russia in 2012-2014, John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, Carnegie’s Dmitri Trenin, and Roger Cohen, a columnist at the New York Times, discussed the current situation in Ukraine, as well as Russian-Western relations, at Chatham House. The event was held in association with the International New York Times.
Trenin stated that “Ukraine is absolutely the most important strategic issue for Russia,” suggesting that this is where Putin’s worry over NATO enlargement comes from. Trenin explained that Putin mistrusts the West because he belives it has acted duplicitously to Russia, saying that the excessive Libyan air strike in 2011 was “a test of Western sincerity.” According to Trenin, the safe limits of NATO’s enlargement to the east have been reached, and “what we’ve seen in Georgia, what we’re seeing in Ukraine, testifies to that fact.”Trenin underscored that Russian security obsession is based on the “flawed… post-Cold War settlement. [It] did not include Russia into a common security system with the West—as it did include Germany, as it did include Japan after the World War II.”
Speaking about the situation in Ukraine, Trenin elaborated on the events in Eastern Ukraine as “not a foreign war” for ordinary Russians. He noted that “some Russians have ceased to be on speaking terms with other Russians as a result of what’s been happening.” However, he stressed that, in his opinion, it is in Russia’s national interest to deal with Ukraine as with a foreign country instead of having to “pay for them, give them a huge vote in your councils, and then face the prospects of them turning their back on you and going.”
On the issue of Western media portrayals of the Ukrainian crisis, Trenin said that “there is too much ideology [from the Western media]—in foreign policy debates.” This is “not a good thing,” he added.
About the Authors
Chrystia Freeland
Michael McFaul
Former Senior Associate
In addition to his role at Carnegie, McFaul is Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and associate professor of political science at Stanford University.
John Mearsheimer
Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
Roger Cohen
SecurityForeign PolicyGlobal GovernanceNorth AmericaUnited StatesRussiaEastern EuropeUkraineWestern Europe
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Simmering U.S.-Iran Conflict Is Moscow’s Ideal Outcome
- Russian Oil Sector Battered but Not Broken by Ukrainian Air AttacksCommentary
If it proves impossible for the Russian authorities to avoid a gasoline deficit, the question then becomes how they will organize the distribution of a scarce resource.
Sergey Vakulenko
- Multiple Wars Are Ruining Central Asia’s Efforts to Diversify Its Trade RoutesCommentary
This year’s wars have made alternative routes to transit through Russia no less risky for Central Asian countries.
Galiya Ibragimova
- How to Ensure That Europe-Russia Talks Do Not FailCommentary
Reestablishing a dialogue with Moscow is not a goal in its own right. The goal is to guarantee the independence of Ukraine and the peace and security of Europe.
Arkady Moshes
- Belarus Is a Test Case for Ukraine’s New Role in the RegionCommentary
Ukraine’s increasingly confrontational posture on Belarus reflects Kyiv’s effort to shape the emerging regional order in Eastern Europe. Kyiv wants to limit European normalization with Minsk—and any future rapprochement with Russia.
Balázs Jarábik
