Commentary
Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Russia",
"Eastern Europe",
"Ukraine",
"Western Europe"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Foreign Policy",
"Global Governance"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Paying for Ukraine
If Ukraine is allowed to become a failed state, the consequences for Europe will be serious, even dire. Making sure that Ukraine keeps itself warm this winter is an absolutely necessary step.
Published on Oct 20, 2014
If Minsk was about halting the fighting in Donbass, Milan has been essentially about ensuring uninterrupted supply of Russian gas to the European Union via Ukraine. It appears that Europe will likely guarantee the supply, by having agreed to pay Kiev's past debt and new gas bills to Gazprom. Moscow, for its part, has conceded on the price it charges for gas used by Ukraine. Much of the discussion in Milan has evidently centered on the intricate schemes to be used for payment. As a result, the transit gas purchased by the Europeans will not be diverted en route by the Ukrainians; Ukraine will get Russian gas paid for by the EU; and Russia will get the money.
This is good, but not good enough. Even if Ukraine will not freeze this winter, the conflict in Donbass probably will. The battle lines are solidifying and turning into de facto borders. Ukraine has finalized legislation about a special administrative status of the rebel-held territories, but the rebel leaders resolutely reject the option of returning to Ukraine. Donetsk and Lugansk will miss out on the elections to the Ukrainian Rada next Sunday, and will hold their own parliamentary poll next month. David Cameron, in Milan, has quoted Vladimir Putin as still referring to the rebel-held region as part of Ukraine. But even if President Vladimir Putin really wishes for such an outcome, this is not the direction that things have taken on the ground.
It will be up to Russia to bail out the part of Donbass which its friends hold and would not give up. Coming on top of the Crimea commitment, and in the context of the Western sanctions, which are more likely to be toughened than eased, caring for a couple of million more people in a depressed and war-devastated region with an unrecognized status and murky conditions on the ground will not be easy. The European Union, however, will have to take care of Ukraine as a whole, with its 40-plus million residents, a ruined and heavily indebted economy and complex political and social environment. The cost of the required effort is anyone's guess. EU member Greece, with its 10 million people, recently needed 240 billion euro to avoid default. 16-million-stong East Germany, on the other hand, has used 1.5 trillion over 25 years, to integrate into the Federal Republic.
Ukraine, of course, is not an EU member, nor is it going to become one soon. Yet, if it is allowed to become a failed state, the consequences for Europe will be serious, even dire. Making sure that Ukraine keeps itself warm this winter is an absolutely necessary step, but much, much more will be needed on top of that. This is the harsh reality one has to face up to.
About the Author
Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- What Does Central Europe’s Post-Orban Russia Policy Look Like?Commentary
Though Orban is gone, Putin can still count on some like-minded individuals in Central and Eastern Europe. However, they will seek to avoid open confrontation with EU institutions over Ukraine and their ties with Moscow.
Dimitar Bechev
- Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?Commentary
The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.
James D.J. Brown
- Brussels and Baku Are Talking Again: What Next?Commentary
Azerbaijan’s relations with the EU appear to be going from strength to strength after several years in the deep freeze following the military escalation in Karabakh in 2023 and Azerbaijan’s bitter fallout with France and several other EU member states.
Shujaat Ahmadzada
- In Russia, Private Companies Have Been Left to Pick Up the Tab for Ukrainian Drone AttacksCommentary
The cost of air defense has become an unregistered tax on revenue for businesses. While military rents are consolidated in the federal budget, the costs of defense are being spread across the balance sheets of companies and regional governments.
Alexandra Prokopenko
- As Trump Threatens to Quit NATO, the Baltic States Are Playing for TimeCommentary
Governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania want to ensure that a U.S. military withdrawal would not leave them dangerously exposed to a Russian attack.
Sergejs Potapkins
