Paper
Douglas H. Paal
{
"authors": [
"Douglas H. Paal"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie China"
],
"collections": [
"China’s Foreign Relations",
"U.S.-China Relations"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "AP",
"programs": [
"Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"East Asia",
"China"
],
"topics": [
"Economy",
"Trade",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
TPP Is in a Coma and China Stands to Gain
The prospects for the Trans-Pacific Partnership look dim in the face of a Trump administration, which may open opportunities for China to take the lead in the Pacific region.
Published on Nov 17, 2016
Source: CNBC
Speaking to CNBC, Carnegie’s Douglas H. Paal stated his perspectives on the future of the TPP in the wake of Trump’s electional victory and transition into the presidency.
“I think the situation is one were the American people really want to see him show big change, and he can’t ignore that promise, that expectation,” Paal said. “But at the same time, you can’t tear the temple down and expect to be able to have services, to be able to do business. So it’s going to come out somewhere in between.
“We’re at the point where nobody is sending really clear signals from the Trump transition: it’s the usual three to four weeks of chaos before the main players are identified and they start to impose order on the process. And so I think it’s something you have to ride through for a little while until we get better direction from the administration.”
When asked about whether the TPP can survive in any way without U.S. involvement, Paal said, “Probably not, though I think they can make an effort. They are going to have a meeting at APEC in Lima, Peru, this weekend and the eleven other members will explore whether there’s some way to bring it together. But the big draw to TPP was getting into the American market and getting America into the other markets—and that is missing now. I would describe TPP as in a coma—it is not dead, but it’s not showing great prospects either.
“Interestingly, this is going to give a chance to China to take the lead as the responsible stakeholder in the Pacific. They’re the signers of the climate control document that’s now being questioned by the Trump team; they’re the people who got a free trade Asia-Pacific proposal, which they borrowed from the U.S. back in the 90’s, and are now taking forward, without the United States. So we may see a shift of leadership roles from the Obama administration and its pivot to Asia, to China and something else.”
About the Author
Douglas H. Paal
Distinguished Fellow, Asia Program
Paal previously served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International and as unofficial U.S. representative to Taiwan as director of the American Institute in Taiwan.
- America’s Future in a Dynamic Asia
- U.S.-China Relations at the Forty-Year MarkQ&A
- +1
Douglas H. Paal, Tong Zhao, Chen Qi, …
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Russia Is Exporting Its Fuel Crisis to Central AsiaCommentary
When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.
Galiya Ibragimova
- Parliamentary Elections in Occupied Ukraine Risk Backfiring for the KremlinCommentary
Despite unhappiness on the ground, Moscow is determined to use both carrot and stick to ensure there is record support for United Russia in occupied Ukraine.
Konstantin Skorkin
- Lukashenko’s Concessions to Kyiv Reflect Russia’s WeaknessCommentary
The recent damage inflicted by Ukrainian drones and missiles on Russia has made Belarus aware of its own vulnerabilities—and surprisingly amenable to Kyiv’s demands.
Artyom Shraibman
- Iran War Fallout Gifts Putin Diplomatic Victory at ASEAN SummitCommentary
Russia looks set to reap economic benefits from closer ties with Southeast Asian countries that are keen to find reliable energy suppliers and diversify trade ties.
Alexander Gabuev
- Simmering U.S.-Iran Conflict Is Moscow’s Ideal OutcomeCommentary
Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East allows Moscow to both increase its influence in Tehran and continue to enjoy the financial windfall of higher oil prices.
Nikita Smagin
