Thomas de Waal
{
"authors": [
"Thomas de Waal"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe"
],
"collections": [
"Europe’s Eastern Neighborhood"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
"programAffiliation": "EP",
"programs": [
"Europe"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Russia",
"Eastern Europe",
"Caucasus",
"Azerbaijan",
"Armenia",
"Iran"
],
"topics": [
"Security"
]
}Source: Getty
The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in Its Fourth Decade
The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains the most dangerous conflict in the post-Soviet space. Even if political tensions have eased since 2018, the region remains dangerously militarized.
Source: CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
The Nagorny Karabakh conflict is the longest-running unresolved dispute in the former Soviet Union, dating back to the middle of the Gorbachev era in 1988. It is also potentially the most dangerous, as Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a perpetual state of military readiness to go to war again over the disputed territory they fought over in 1991-94. At the end of that conflict, the Armenian side prevailed at great cost. Around 20,000 people died and one million people were displaced on both sides, the majority of them Azerbaijanis. A brief upsurge of fighting in 2016 cost around 200 lives.Read Full Text
This publication was prepared within the framework of the CEPS-led 3DCFTAs project, enabled by financial support from Sweden. To download the publication, please consult the following link.
About the Author
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
- There Is No Shortcut for Europe in ArmeniaCommentary
- Rewiring the South Caucasus: TRIPP and the New Geopolitics of ConnectivityArticle
Thomas de Waal, Areg Kochinyan, Zaur Shiriyev
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- What Does Central Europe’s Post-Orban Russia Policy Look Like?Commentary
Though Orban is gone, Putin can still count on some like-minded individuals in Central and Eastern Europe. However, they will seek to avoid open confrontation with EU institutions over Ukraine and their ties with Moscow.
Dimitar Bechev
- Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?Commentary
The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.
James D.J. Brown
- Brussels and Baku Are Talking Again: What Next?Commentary
Azerbaijan’s relations with the EU appear to be going from strength to strength after several years in the deep freeze following the military escalation in Karabakh in 2023 and Azerbaijan’s bitter fallout with France and several other EU member states.
Shujaat Ahmadzada
- In Russia, Private Companies Have Been Left to Pick Up the Tab for Ukrainian Drone AttacksCommentary
The cost of air defense has become an unregistered tax on revenue for businesses. While military rents are consolidated in the federal budget, the costs of defense are being spread across the balance sheets of companies and regional governments.
Alexandra Prokopenko
- As Trump Threatens to Quit NATO, the Baltic States Are Playing for TimeCommentary
Governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania want to ensure that a U.S. military withdrawal would not leave them dangerously exposed to a Russian attack.
Sergejs Potapkins