• Research
  • Politika
  • About
Carnegie Russia Eurasia center logoCarnegie lettermark logo
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Thomas de Waal"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Europe’s Eastern Neighborhood"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "EP",
  "programs": [
    "Europe"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Russia",
    "Eastern Europe",
    "Caucasus",
    "Azerbaijan",
    "Armenia",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

Other
Carnegie Europe

The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in Its Fourth Decade

The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains the most dangerous conflict in the post-Soviet space. Even if political tensions have eased since 2018, the region remains dangerously militarized.

Link Copied
By Thomas de Waal
Published on Dec 24, 2019

Source: CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

The Nagorny Karabakh conflict is the longest-running unresolved dispute in the former Soviet Union, dating back to the middle of the Gorbachev era in 1988. It is also potentially the most dangerous, as Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a perpetual state of military readiness to go to war again over the disputed territory they fought over in 1991-94. At the end of that conflict, the Armenian side prevailed at great cost. Around 20,000 people died and one million people were displaced on both sides, the majority of them Azerbaijanis. A brief upsurge of fighting in 2016 cost around 200 lives.

Read Full Text

This publication was prepared within the framework of the CEPS-led 3DCFTAs project, enabled by financial support from Sweden. To download the publication, please consult the following link.

About the Author

Thomas de Waal

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    A Black Sea Truce Is About Global Food Security, Too

      Thomas de Waal

  • Article
    Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea

      Thomas de Waal

Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Thomas de Waal
SecurityRussiaEastern EuropeCaucasusAzerbaijanArmeniaIran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Ukrainian Drone Attacks Reveal the Cost of Russia’s “Sovereign Internet” Campaign

    Russia spent years building a “sovereign internet,” concentrating web infrastructure exclusively within Russian territory. Ukrainian drone attacks have shown how vulnerable that approach has left the Russian internet.

      Maria Kolomychenko

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    How the Latest Election Changed the Role of Russia’s Parliament

    Putin’s conservative staffing policies and search for ever greater control have cemented parliament’s transformation into a bureaucratic appendage of the executive branch.

      Andrey Pertsev

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    In the Kremlin’s AI Propaganda Blitz, the Noise Is the Signal

    Russia’s AI-driven propaganda campaigns operate in a fragmented, chaotic, and often illogical manner. That’s not necessarily a problem for the Kremlin, though: It’s much easier to mimic genuine public debate that way.

      Ilya Klishin

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Stalled at the Front, Russia Seeks to Undermine Ukraine’s Economic Capacity

    Russian strikes are weakening the economy sustaining Ukraine’s war effort. Closing the growing funding gap will require more European support and politically contentious reforms in Kyiv.

      Balázs Jarábik

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Russian Indoctrination in Occupied Ukrainian Schools Is a Sham

    Despite a new textbook, an influx of Russian teachers and managers, and an end to the teaching of Ukrainian, the Kremlin is unlikely to have “reprogrammed” locals.

      Konstantin Skorkin

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Carnegie Russia Eurasia logo, white
  • Research
  • Politika
  • About
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Privacy
  • For Media
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.