A successful peace agreement with Azerbaijan would mean Armenia would have more options and would be able to lessen its historical dependence on Russia and pursue a stronger partnership with the West. A continuation of the status quo gives Russia more opportunities to reapply its traditional levers of control.  

Entrenched divisions in Bosnia and Herzegovina have hampered EU and U.S. efforts to build functional institutions and integrate the country into Western clubs. Dysfunctionality in turn provides fertile ground for meddling by Russia, which appears to have won the battle for the hearts and minds of Bosnian Serbs.

Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia are caught in between Russia and the EU, building ties with the latter even as the former seeks to maintain influence there and deter the West.

Vladimir Putin has reason to be confident that Russia can maintain current military spending levels for a relatively long time. This is bad news for Ukraine, its Western partners and neighbors, and overall global security.

Russia’s economy is being revved up by the Kremlin’s wartime priorities. Having largely completed an adjustment to the Western sanctions regime, the economy has stabilized but is now more dependent on oil prices. This hard-won stability may last a long time, but it is not eternal.

Western leaders’ apathy and lack of interest in Belarus risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that leaves Belarus trapped in Moscow’s smothering embrace more or less indefinitely. This paper identifies options for a more effective Western strategy that takes into account existing opportunities and limitations.

The nationalist-imperialist worldview that the Putin regime is imposing on Russians is intended to feed on the past and exploit historical memories and concepts to reshape and manage the mass consciousness of the Russian people.

Many Russians equate their country with the political regime that rules it, and believe it is their duty to support the state’s actions. This belief and the limited impact the war in Ukraine has had on the day-to-day lives of most Russians go some way to explaining continuing high levels of support for the war among Russians.

Rather than consolidating Russian society, the conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated existing divisions on a diverse array of issues, including support for the regime. Put another way, the impression that Putin now has the full support of the Russian public is simply incorrect.

Russia faces a litany of long-term economic challenges that will hobble its growth potential but likely won’t be severe enough to force far-reaching political change.