The new approach will badly damage Russia’s relations with some Asian countries, in particular South Korea, which is now likely to greenlight weapons shipments to Ukraine.

While China may not want to upend ties with Europe and the United States, it seeks to ensure that Russia remains a stable strategic partner. Providing Russia with dual-use components rather than finished weapons has allowed China to provide support for Russia while claiming plausible deniability.

Russia doesn’t stand to gain anything from de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, but friends and foes alike will reap the benefits of its decision.

Russia’s suspension of the New START Treaty is unlikely to impact the United States’ willingness to keep backing Ukraine, but it could certainly have an adverse long-term effect on Russia’s security.

Bilateral nuclear arms control is being succeeded in a polycentric nuclear world by deregulation. Rather than mourn arms control, we should focus on complimenting deterrence—which has been and will remain the bedrock of strategic stability—with reliable communication, contacts, transparency, and restraint among relevant parties.

Washington and Pyongyang will eventually need to resume direct talks. With neither party ready for that yet, at first secret contacts will have to be organized in third countries. In the meantime, de-escalation is the order of the day, and Russia one of its unlikely brokers.