Beijing’s rush to embrace renewable energy—and Moscow’s reluctance—is a systemic threat to economic cooperation between the two countries.

While Russia’s near monopoly on the oil and gas market in Southeast Europe looks secure for now, there will be less and less Russian gas and oil sold on the local market going forward, as Balkan governments and companies look elsewhere for supplies.

The state has taken an ever-greater role in Russian energy markets in recent years, and the system for regulating domestic fuel prices has become more and more cumbersome. The war in Ukraine has shown both that the system is no longer fit for purpose, and that a government filled with technocrats is unable to see the forest for the trees.

Both Moscow and Kyiv are counting on being able to use the grain market to inflict damage on the enemy without sustaining any losses themselves. In this situation, the resurrection of the grain deal is a far less likely outcome than escalation.

Ukrainian attempts to force Russian oil from the Black Sea may have unintended consequences for its allies

Iran’s goal is to modernize its transport infrastructure using Russian money, and Moscow has little choice but to foot the bill.