The bulk of the current analysis of the attacks on refineries is celebratory, with a strong element of confirmation bias—and that is a classical folly that prevents learning. Russia’s refining sector, unlike its Black Sea Fleet, has proven to be resilient to the recent type of attacks, rather than the Achilles’ heel of the Russian economy that many were hoping it would be.

The new sanctions package will be extremely painful for the Russian economy, but it’s two years too late to be a gamechanger. In a global context, however, it increases the risk of the fragmentation of the financial system.

Russia’s tax reform comes at the expense of companies working outside of the defense sector and related industries.

Central Asian and South Caucasus nations should use the interest in East–West trade through their territory to boost regional connectivity.

The Russian authorities understand that they would be wise not to distract ordinary people from their daily concerns at a time of war, and that they must be inventive and flexible, avoiding any sudden moves.

Many formerly badly paid Russian blue-collar workers have seen their salaries skyrocket since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, far outpacing inflation.