The sanctions deployed against Russia have failed to break Vladimir Putin’s war machine, and now the West is looking for ways to make them more potent. In doing so, Western policymakers should remain clear-eyed about potential risks and side effects.

Some are finding ways to make money in wartime Russia, but no one views the country as a safe place to keep savings. Ultimately, it is only high savings rates and a lack of alternatives that are keeping the last remaining investors in the Russian financial market.

The bulk of the current analysis of the attacks on refineries is celebratory, with a strong element of confirmation bias—and that is a classical folly that prevents learning. Russia’s refining sector, unlike its Black Sea Fleet, has proven to be resilient to the recent type of attacks, rather than the Achilles’ heel of the Russian economy that many were hoping it would be.

The new sanctions package will be extremely painful for the Russian economy, but it’s two years too late to be a gamechanger. In a global context, however, it increases the risk of the fragmentation of the financial system.

Russia’s tax reform comes at the expense of companies working outside of the defense sector and related industries.

Central Asian and South Caucasus nations should use the interest in East–West trade through their territory to boost regional connectivity.