Given the fall of the Assad regime, other Russian clients may conclude that they can’t rely on Moscow.

At his annual press conference, the Russian president dismissed European leaders, and was cautious about whether negotiations with Trump on Ukraine would yield anything.

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center, to unpack the sudden fall of Assad’s regime and what it means for Russia to lose its stronghold in the Middle East. 

With the fall of Syria’s Moscow-supported regime, a large chunk of Russia’s leverage over Türkiye is gone. But Erdoğan will not take the risk of challenging Russia. Rather, he will continue acting as an intermediary between Putin and the West.

The Kremlin could offer support and international legitimacy to the new rulers in Damascus in exchange for being allowed to keep its military bases in the country. 

It will be difficult for Beijing and Moscow to break up.