The bulk of the current analysis of the attacks on refineries is celebratory, with a strong element of confirmation bias—and that is a classical folly that prevents learning. Russia’s refining sector, unlike its Black Sea Fleet, has proven to be resilient to the recent type of attacks, rather than the Achilles’ heel of the Russian economy that many were hoping it would be.
If the scale of Ukrainian drone attacks is maintained at the levels of March and Russian air defenses do not improve, Ukraine will be able to keep damaging Russian refineries faster than they can be fixed, slowly but steadily eroding the country’s refining capacity.
Moscow has little to gain from a major flare-up in the Red Sea, which means Washington’s efforts to stop Houthi attacks on shipping are likely to be quietly welcomed.
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Dr. Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a senior non-resident scholar at CSIS, to discuss Russia's position on the conflict in the Middle East.
Instead of Russian and Western drafts of a peace treaty, there will now only be one: Azerbaijan’s.
Moscow’s relationship with the militant group Hamas is part of a Middle East strategy meant to boost its standing in the Global South: an effort that has long involved building ties with both Israel and its sworn enemies.
Russia doesn’t stand to gain anything from de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, but friends and foes alike will reap the benefits of its decision.
