A steady flow of Russian weapons to Tehran could change the balance of power in the region, potentially triggering a response from the United States and Israel. 

The bulk of the current analysis of the attacks on refineries is celebratory, with a strong element of confirmation bias—and that is a classical folly that prevents learning. Russia’s refining sector, unlike its Black Sea Fleet, has proven to be resilient to the recent type of attacks, rather than the Achilles’ heel of the Russian economy that many were hoping it would be.

Officials who were removed include both close associates of former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, and generals seen to have failed in Ukraine.

Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia, and Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine and Russia's economic stability following Moscow's government reshuffle.

While China may not want to upend ties with Europe and the United States, it seeks to ensure that Russia remains a stable strategic partner. Providing Russia with dual-use components rather than finished weapons has allowed China to provide support for Russia while claiming plausible deniability.

If the scale of Ukrainian drone attacks is maintained at the levels of March and Russian air defenses do not improve, Ukraine will be able to keep damaging Russian refineries faster than they can be fixed, slowly but steadily eroding the country’s refining capacity.