Central Asian and South Caucasus nations should use the interest in East–West trade through their territory to boost regional connectivity.

While Baku appears inclined to pursue a “business only” arrangement with the European Union, it’s unclear whether that would be acceptable for Brussels.

The state has taken an ever-greater role in Russian energy markets in recent years, and the system for regulating domestic fuel prices has become more and more cumbersome. The war in Ukraine has shown both that the system is no longer fit for purpose, and that a government filled with technocrats is unable to see the forest for the trees.

Both Moscow and Kyiv are counting on being able to use the grain market to inflict damage on the enemy without sustaining any losses themselves. In this situation, the resurrection of the grain deal is a far less likely outcome than escalation.

Moscow has failed to turn the grain deal to its advantage, but Türkiye has plenty of leverage to convince Russia to return to its implementation.

As the Turkish president shifts his focus toward Kyiv, he is essentially testing Moscow’s new red lines. How firmly is Russia prepared to react in a situation where it is simultaneously fending off a Ukrainian counteroffensive and recovering from the Wagner mutiny?