Russian companies are not only selling more metals to China, but also integrating their value chains with Chinese firms.

The sanctions deployed against Russia have failed to break Vladimir Putin’s war machine, and now the West is looking for ways to make them more potent. In doing so, Western policymakers should remain clear-eyed about potential risks and side effects.

The new sanctions package will be extremely painful for the Russian economy, but it’s two years too late to be a gamechanger. In a global context, however, it increases the risk of the fragmentation of the financial system.

Central Asian and South Caucasus nations should use the interest in East–West trade through their territory to boost regional connectivity.

While Baku appears inclined to pursue a “business only” arrangement with the European Union, it’s unclear whether that would be acceptable for Brussels.

The state has taken an ever-greater role in Russian energy markets in recent years, and the system for regulating domestic fuel prices has become more and more cumbersome. The war in Ukraine has shown both that the system is no longer fit for purpose, and that a government filled with technocrats is unable to see the forest for the trees.