Commentary
Peter Kellner
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Source: Getty
In The Media
Are the Polls That Say Biden Is Beating Trump Right?
Former U.S. vice president Joe Biden has drawn well ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump in the latest American polls for the presidential election in November. But is Biden’s lead real—and will it last?
Published on Jun 29, 2020
Source: TheArticle
Joe Biden has drawn well ahead of Donald Trump in the latest American polls. This analysis seeks to answer two questions: is Biden’s lead real — and will it last?
Let’s start with what the polls currently say. According to the 538 website — the most sophisticated of the sites that monitor the polls — Biden’s national lead has held steady at around nine per cent for the past fortnight. He also leads by at least six points in four states that Trump won in 2016: Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. These states have a combined total of 75 electoral college votes. If Biden wins them all, and assuming no other states change hands, he would win the presidency with 317 electoral college votes, compared with Trump’s 221.Biden is currently ahead, though more narrowly, in five further states, with a total of 66 electoral college votes (Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia and Iowa). If he wins all these, then he beats Trump by 383-155. A Biden super-optimist would add Texas, with its 36 electoral college votes, as a possible gain. Trump won by 9 per cent in 2016, but his polling lead is only 0.4 per cent today.
That’s what the polls say: but are they right? Here are some reasons for saying they are wrong.
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About the Author
Peter Kellner
Former Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Europe
Kellner was a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focused on Brexit, populism, and electoral democracy.
- The Moment of Truth for a UK-EU Reset
- The UK Braces for a Change of DirectionCommentary
Peter Kellner
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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