Prospects for Continued High Economic Growth in China

{
  "authors": [
    "Albert Keidel"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Economy",
    "Trade"
  ]
}

In The Media

Prospects for Continued High Economic Growth in China

By Dr. Albert Keidel

Published on Nov 10, 2004

Source: Paper presented at the POSRI International Forum on China's Development

This paper reviews China's current economy with an eye to its future prospects and the kinds of policies that can maximize the probability that China's growth by the middle of this century will leave it with a standard of living closer to that of Spain in the year 2000. The alternative is something more in the direction of a "sick man" or "chaos" scenario of weak growth, social and political unrest, and resulting international tensions, not to mention standard-of-living challenges for ordinary Chinese. The paper's approach is ad hoc, but the unifying theme is a skeptical view of any traditional market-oriented policy proposal that is not first tested against actual conditions in China's inherited environment of market failures and incomplete institutions. If Chinese policymakers continue to address the concerns highlighted in this paper and in some cases if they adjust their approach - especially in terms of rural grain policies - then prospects for continued high economic growth in China are quite good indeed.

For full text of article, click on the link to the right.

About the Author

Dr. Albert Keidel

Former Senior Associate, China Program

Keidel served as acting director and deputy director for the Office of East Asian Nations at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Before joining Treasury in 2001, he covered economic trends, system reforms, poverty, and country risk as a senior economist in the World Bank office in Beijing.

Recent Work

Article
As China's Exports Drop, Can Domestic Demand Drive Growth?
- Dr. Albert Keidel
Article
China’s Fourth Quarter 2008 Statistical Record
- Dr. Albert Keidel

Economy Trade China

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Europe

Paper
From Trade Dependence to Geopolitical Leverage: The EU in an Era of Weaponized Interdependence
As geopolitical rivalry weaponizes global supply chains, the EU’s true vulnerability lies in emerging-risk imports. For these goods, suppliers are growing more concentrated, substitution more difficult, and political risk is looming.
Sinan Ülgen
Commentary
Strategic Europe
European Security Strategy: In Search of a New Ambition
The EU is putting together a new security strategy to meet today’s myriad challenges. But for any proposal to be effective, the union needs to grapple with its identity and ambitions.
Pierre Vimont
Commentary
Strategic Europe
Europe Should Not Let Nuclear Nonproliferation Die
Amid uncertainty caused by the Iran war, the global drive for nonproliferation has stalled. With Europe diplomatically marginalized and countries reassessing their nuclear options, efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons risk becoming irrelevant.
Jane Darby Menton
Commentary
Can Europe Compete with the United States and China?
Between the United States’ market-driven approach and China's state-led industrial strategy, Europe is reckoning with how it can remain competitive in the global economy. But is Europe in danger of becoming a U.S. or China colony?
Noah Barkin, Anu Bradford
Commentary
Strategic Europe
The EU Equivocating on Turkey Is Bad Geopolitics
Following Ursula von der Leyen’s gaffe equating Turkey to Russia and China, relations with Ankara risk deteriorating even further. Without better, more consistent diplomatic messaging, how can the EU pretend to be a geopolitical power?
Sinan Ülgen

More Work from Carnegie Europe

Europe trade economy container supply chains

Paper

From Trade Dependence to Geopolitical Leverage: The EU in an Era of Weaponized Interdependence

As geopolitical rivalry weaponizes global supply chains, the EU’s true vulnerability lies in emerging-risk imports. For these goods, suppliers are growing more concentrated, substitution more difficult, and political risk is looming.

Sinan Ülgen

Commentary

Strategic Europe

European Security Strategy: In Search of a New Ambition

The EU is putting together a new security strategy to meet today’s myriad challenges. But for any proposal to be effective, the union needs to grapple with its identity and ambitions.

Pierre Vimont

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Europe Should Not Let Nuclear Nonproliferation Die

Amid uncertainty caused by the Iran war, the global drive for nonproliferation has stalled. With Europe diplomatically marginalized and countries reassessing their nuclear options, efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons risk becoming irrelevant.

Jane Darby Menton

Commentary

Can Europe Compete with the United States and China?

Between the United States’ market-driven approach and China's state-led industrial strategy, Europe is reckoning with how it can remain competitive in the global economy. But is Europe in danger of becoming a U.S. or China colony?

Noah Barkin, Anu Bradford

Commentary

Strategic Europe

The EU Equivocating on Turkey Is Bad Geopolitics

Following Ursula von der Leyen’s gaffe equating Turkey to Russia and China, relations with Ankara risk deteriorating even further. Without better, more consistent diplomatic messaging, how can the EU pretend to be a geopolitical power?

Sinan Ülgen