Research
Economic growth is at the heart of a dilemma between planetary and international security.
Olivia Lazard
{
"authors": [],
"type": "pressRelease",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North Africa",
"Mauritania",
"Maghreb"
],
"topics": [
"Security"
]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE
Press Release
Al-Qaeda’s uncertain African prospects
Lightly patrolled borders, sparsely populated areas, and recent terrorist activity raise fears that the Sahel is a fertile ground for jihadist movements, notably al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Regional cooperation and discreet aid from the West are critical for countries to regain control of their territory and prevent al-Qaeda from gaining ground in Africa.
Published on Jun 10, 2010
WASHINGTON, June 10—Lightly patrolled borders, sparsely populated areas, and recent terrorist activity raise fears that the Sahel is a fertile ground for jihadist movements, notably al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Regional cooperation and discreet aid from the West are critical for countries to regain control of their territory and prevent al-Qaeda from gaining ground in Africa, asserts a new paper by Jean-Pierre Filiu.
Key Conclusions
- AQIM poses more of a security threat than a direct political threat to governments. Terrorist networks linked to al-Qaeda operate in Mauritania, Mali, and Niger, but their roots are shallow and they enjoy little popular support. AQIM is weakened by internal rivalry and its partnership with criminals, limiting its broader appeal.
- Al-Qaeda’s central leadership doesn’t seem to have any grand plans for Africa, but leaders are interested in incorporating new recruits from the Sahel.
- The ethno-racial divide within al-Qaeda prevents African recruits from gaining leadership roles. The terror organization’s three affiliates—in the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, and the Islamic Maghreb—remain essentially Arab, and AQIM struggles to prove its commitment to “Africanized” jihad without Africanizing some of its leadership.
Recommendations for policy makers
- Equip security forces. Counterterrorism forces in Sahel countries are ill-equipped to chase and fight AQIM across vast areas and need quiet international assistance to control areas that are now security risks for foreigners.
- Collaborate regionally. Security cooperation between neighboring countries is critical for disrupting AQIM’s mobility.
- Avoid direct intervention from the West. Any public display of U.S. or European involvement will play into AQIM’s hands.
“Mauritania, Mali, and Niger are among the world’s poorest states and will require international support to defuse AQIM’s momentum,” writes Filiu. “Algeria is right to push for regional cooperation to address the threat, and discreet aid from the West is crucial to help the Sahel countries regain control of their territory from al-Qaeda forces and prevent the terror group from taking hold in Africa.”
###
NOTES
- Jean-Pierre Filiu is a professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po, Middle East department) and the author of Apocalypse in Islam (forthcoming, University of California Press).
- The Carnegie Middle East Program combines in-depth local knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to examine economic, socio-political, and strategic interests in the Arab world to provide analysis and recommendations in both English and Arabic that are deeply informed by knowledge and views from the region.
- The Carnegie Middle East Center based in Beirut, Lebanon, aims to better inform the process of political change in the Middle East.
- Carnegie's Arab Reform Bulletin analyzes political reform in the Middle East.
- Press Contact: David Kampf, 202/939-2233, pressoffice@ceip.org
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Planetary vs International Security: Economic Growth at the Crossroads
- Europe and the Arab Gulf Must Come TogetherCommentary
The war in Iran proves the United States is now a destabilizing actor for Europe and the Arab Gulf. From protect their economies and energy supplies to safeguarding their territorial integrity, both regions have much to gain from forming a new kind of partnership together.
Rym Momtaz
- Taking the Pulse: Is France’s New Nuclear Doctrine Ambitious Enough?Commentary
French President Emmanuel Macron has unveiled his country’s new nuclear doctrine. Are the changes he has made enough to reassure France’s European partners in the current geopolitical context?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- The Iran War’s Dangerous Fallout for EuropeCommentary
The drone strike on the British air base in Akrotiri brings Europe’s proximity to the conflict in Iran into sharp relief. In the fog of war, old tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean risk being reignited, and regional stakeholders must avoid escalation.
Marc Pierini
- Europe on Iran: Gone with the WindCommentary
Europe’s reaction to the war in Iran has been disunited and meek, a far cry from its previously leading role in diplomacy with Tehran. To avoid being condemned to the sidelines while escalation continues, Brussels needs to stand up for international law.
Pierre Vimont
