{
"authors": [
"Martha Brill Olcott"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Central Asia",
"Turkmenistan"
],
"topics": [
"Climate Change"
]
}
Source: Getty
Turkmenistan has the gas reserves necessary to realize its plan to increase production. However, several geographic and political issues may make it difficult to export Turkmen gas.
Source: James a. Baker III Institute for Public Policy
Turkmenistan has enormous gas reserves, estimated at 13.4 trillion cubic meters (473.2 trillion cubic feet), and is generally ranked fourth globally, behind Russia, Iran, and Qatar. The country’s oil reserves, estimated at 600 million barrels, are substantially smaller. The country has announced plans to increase gas production to 230 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y), or 8,122 billion cubic feet per year, by 2030—a threefold increase from its previous production high in 1990, and over 3½ times production levels in 2012.
The country obviously has the reserves to justify the optimism of its announced plans, but the natural challenges of exporting gas from this land-locked country and the self-imposed difficulty of doing business in the republic combine to make it far from clear whether Turkmenistan will be able to realize its full potential in the global gas market.This chapter will discuss the development of Turkmenistan’s natural gas sector and the difficulties foreign investors face in attempting to bring Turkmen gas to market. The chapter proceeds in four parts. Part I, “A Brief History,” provides a very brief look at the development of independent Turkmenistan’s political and economic structure. Part II, “The Challenge of Doing Business in Turkmenistan,” describes how Turkmenistan’s business environment has changed under the two presidents that have led the country since independence, the structure of political and economic power, and the pitfalls that foreign investors face. Part III, “Turkmenistan’s Export Challenge,” examines three different primary export scenarios for Turkmen gas—to Russia, Iran, and China—as well as a variety of other planned or previously hoped for export routes that have not come to fruition. Finally, Part IV, “Could a Libyan Scenario Occur in Turkmenistan?” discusses possible sources of social unrest and the potential for drastic political change in the country....
Read the full article on the website of the James A. Baker III institute for Public Policy.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to energy transition and ecological protection. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain its role as a driver of global climate action?
Thomas de Waal
The second Trump administration has shifted the cornerstones of the liberal international order. How the EU responds will determine not only its global standing but also the very integrity of the European project.
Rym Momtaz
Greenlash is driven by an increasingly diverse set of actors. It is also prompting groups in favor of ambitious climate action to seek more effective strategies.
Erin Jones, Richard Youngs
The EU’s ambition to slash carbon emissions by 90 percent by 2040 is challenged by internal divisions and global turmoil. But this target must cement a new era of European climate action, linked to innovation, competitiveness, and security.
Emil Sondaj Hansen
As the effects of climate change intensify, interest in geoengineering approaches is ramping up. But these methods risk creating new ecological and security threats, undermining urgent systemic transitions.
Olivia Lazard, Mandi Bissett, James Dyke