Frederic Wehrey, Charles H. Johnson
{
"authors": [
"Frederic Wehrey"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Lebanon",
"Saudi Arabia",
"Gulf",
"Levant"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Democracy"
]
}Source: Getty
Crown Prince’s Power Grab Poses New Regional Risks
The sweeping arrest of royals and officials in Saudi Arabia has removed many of the last checks and balances to executive power in the country.
Source: Axios
In Saudi Arabia, foreign and domestic policy have long been intertwined: Royals use diplomacy to consolidate legitimacy at home but also to solicit consensus from Saudi elites that acts to buttress their policies abroad. All that has now changed.
In seizing vast executive powers, as in this weekend's sweeping arrest of royals and officials, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is undoing the last of those checks and balances — princely economic and security fiefdoms that acted as countervailing influences. He has freed himself to engage in ill-fated confrontations abroad that dilute Saudi power, exposing the kingdom to greater military threats and scaring off investors.
Complicating matters further, the crown prince has opened too many fronts at once: military entanglement in Yemen, a blockade of Qatar, and a campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood. Most recently, he has accused Lebanon of being a hostile power because of the dominance of the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah.
Why it matters: By risking instability and even open conflict, these moves undermine Saudi Arabia's power and play to the strengths of its regional rivals. Iran in particular thrives on disarray in the Middle East, and its militant proxies far outmatch the kingdom's.
About the Author
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Frederic Wehrey is a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his research focuses on governance, conflict, and security in Libya, North Africa, and the Persian Gulf.
- Parallel Climate Reckonings: Colonial Water Legacies and Indigenous Adaptation, from Morocco to the American WestArticle
- The Iran War Is a Stress Test for Gulf StatesCommentary
Frederic Wehrey, Charles H. Johnson
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Why MAGA’s Far-Right European Ties Will EndureCommentary
In supporting Europe’s far-right, MAGA and Russia both want the same thing: a weaker EU. Europe must defend itself without abandoning the openness these forces exploit.
Armida van Rij
- Assessing Information Ecosystems: How Governments Can Get Ahead of Hybrid ThreatsPaper
The hybrid warfare landscape is evolving rapidly, leaving policymakers without clear strategies. To better inform their work in addressing emerging challenges, governments must dig deeper into the underlying dynamics at play.
Raluca Csernatoni, Alicia Wanless
- Europe from Scratch: Visions for a New European OrderReport
As the EU confronts profound challenges, several leaders have called for fundamental reform to the union’s model—but only modest, superficial changes have resulted. What if Europe really could be reimagined from zero today: What should such a redesigned European order look like?
Richard Youngs, ed.
- The Le Pen Verdict: How French Politics Turned MAGACommentary
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen can—and will—run in France’s next presidential election. What does the outcome of her appeal against a 2025 embezzlement conviction mean for the country’s political future?
Catherine Fieschi
- Taking the Pulse: Has Meloni Broken MAGA’s Civilizational Axis?Commentary
When Giorgia Meloni very publicly rebuked Donald Trump’s disparaging remarks about her, it surprised many who saw her as a European extension of Trumpism. Is the spat a sign of trouble in the radical right’s transatlantic axis?
Rym Momtaz, ed.