Other
Sarah Yerkes, Natalie Triche
{
"authors": [
"Sarah Yerkes"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North Africa",
"Tunisia"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Tunisian President’s Death Could Bring Political Shifts in Its Wake
President Beji Caid Essebsi was Tunisia’s first democratically elected president. His death could lead to the unraveling of the Nidaa Tounes party, which in recent years has suffered from in-fighting and lacked a coherent vision
By Sarah Yerkes
Published on Jul 25, 2019
Source: Axios
The death of Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi on Thursday will complicate the country's upcoming elections and may spell the end of his increasingly fractious Nidaa Tounes political party.
The big picture: The 92-year-old leader was Tunisia's first democratically elected president. It could now fall to the interim president, 85-year-old Speaker of Parliament Mohammed Ennaceur, to finalize the Constitutional Court — a body whose absence has stunted the democratic transition as parliament has failed to agree on the court's number of members.
Where it stands: Tunisia was already scheduled to hold presidential elections on November 17, yet the ISIE — Tunisia's electoral body —announced it would move the elections up to September 15, to comply with a constitutional requirement that new elections be held within 90 days of the president’s death.
- The ISIE has been plagued with logistical and political challenges in the past and may not be able to handle this curveball.
- With less than 8 weeks remaining, the condensed electoral calendar leaves candidates far less time to prepare their campaigns.
What's happening: The interim president must decide what to do about a controversial electoral law, passed by parliament in June, that would both raise the electoral threshold from 3% to 5% and exclude some popular presidential candidates, including television magnate Nabil Karoui, from the race.
- Essebsi had not signed the law before he died, leaving it in limbo. Should Ennaceur, a member of Essebsi’s party, sign the law, he would betray the deceased president’s wishes.
The impact: Essebi's death could lead to the unraveling of the Nidaa Tounes party, which in recent years has suffered from in-fighting and lacked a coherent vision.
- Its traditional political rival, the Islamist party Ennahda, is likely to see gains. One member, Abdelfatah Mourou, was sworn in as speaker of the Assembly during the post-Essebsi transition, granting the party a prominent position of power ahead of the elections.
- Prime Minister Youssef Chahed — who frequently sparred with Essebi and his son, the head of Nidaa Tounes — may stand to benefit most from the early elections. A 42-year-old with little political experience, he struggled to develop his own agenda as Essebsi impinged on his role. Chahed will have to prove that he and his new Tahya Tounes party can address the country’s economic challenges more successfully.
About the Author
Sarah Yerkes
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Sarah Yerkes is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on Tunisia’s political, economic, and security developments as well as state-society relations in the Middle East and North Africa.
- Senegal: An Island of Resilience
- Amid Iran War, Gulf Countries Slow the Pace of ReformsArticle
Sarah Yerkes, Amr Hamzawy
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Europe Should Not Let Nuclear Nonproliferation DieCommentary
Amid uncertainty caused by the Iran war, the global drive for nonproliferation has stalled. With Europe diplomatically marginalized and countries reassessing their nuclear options, efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons risk becoming irrelevant.
Jane Darby Menton
- Can Europe Compete with the United States and China?Commentary
Between the United States’ market-driven approach and China's state-led industrial strategy, Europe is reckoning with how it can remain competitive in the global economy. But is Europe in danger of becoming a U.S. or China colony?
Noah Barkin, Anu Bradford
- EU Enlargement Forgets EuropeansCommentary
Preparing candidate countries for EU membership is no longer enough. As the enlargement process becomes a reality, the union must also prepare its own societies.
Iliriana Gjoni
- Trump Turns NATO into a Tool of CoercionCommentary
The full list of humiliations Europe has endured since Donald Trump returned to the White House makes for grim reading. But Washington’s adversarial approach to its allies undermines its own power base.
Rym Momtaz
- How the EU Can Become Energy IndependentCommentary
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis, but Europe is stuck in reaction mode. Without more strategic foresight, the EU will remain dependent on fossil fuels and will never be truly secure.
Milo McBride, Pauline Gerard
