Paper
George Perkovich
Book
Iran Gets the Bomb—Then What?
The acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists or any additional states would shake the international system. The more strategically important the state, the greater the potential threat to global security.
Published on Oct 1, 2005
Source: Strategic Studies Institute
This chapter appears in Sokolski, H. D. and Clawson, P. (eds) Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran, Strategic Studies Institute, United States Army War College, 2005.
The acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists or any additional states would shake the international system. The more strategically important the state, the greater the potential threat to global security.
Iran is a strategically vital actor in the international system. It incarnates an historically major civilization. It is the largest state in the regional complex that comprises the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, and Central Asia, including Turkey. Major developments in Iran, therefore, have wide reverberations simply as a matter of political geophysics. Iran’s large role in the global supply of fossil fuels makes it still more important. As a direct source of fuel, and also as a shaper of regional dynamics, Iran can signifi cantly affect the global economy, and therefore politics. Iran’s ties to terrorist organizations operating (primarily) in the Middle East renders Tehran a vital actor in the international campaign against terrorism.
Iran has the capability to peacefully augment or violently disrupt U.S. missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Thus, a major change in Iran’s military strength and/or political status would directly affect major U.S. and international interests.
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About the Author
George Perkovich
Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons, Senior Fellow
George Perkovich is the Japan Chair for a World Without Nuclear Weapons and a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program. He works primarily on nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation, and disarmament issues, and is leading a study on nuclear signaling in the 21st century.
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Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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