Competitive Deterrence? The United States, China, and South Asia

{
  "authors": [
    "Toby Dalton"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "NPP",
  "programs": [
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [],
  "topics": [
    "Security",
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

Competitive Deterrence? The United States, China, and South Asia

The past, present, and future shape of nuclear competition among China, India, and Pakistan, specifically the development and posturing of nuclear weapons and related offensive and defensive military systems, is characterized by conflicting narratives. As U.S.-China strategic competition grows, what effects might it have on nuclear competition in Southern Asia?

By Toby Dalton

Published on Apr 26, 2021

US-China Nuclear Relations: The Impact of Strategic Triangles

About the Author

Toby Dalton

Senior Fellow and Co-director, Nuclear Policy Program

Toby Dalton is a senior fellow and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment. An expert on nonproliferation and nuclear energy, his work addresses regional security challenges and the evolution of the global nuclear order.

Recent Work

Commentary
A Nuclear Odyssey at Sea
- Jamie Kwong, Toby Dalton
Paper
Demystifying the Nuclear Threshold
- Ariel (Eli) Levite, Toby Dalton

Security Nuclear Policy

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie India

Commentary
A Halting Turn: India’s Military Transformation
In any defense establishment, change is an ongoing process. However, despite the best of intentions, existing bureaucracies, bound by habit and years of socialization, have their limits in implementing transformative change.
Anit Mukherjee
Paper
Threading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with China
After the chill in ties between 2020 and 2024 that brought India–China relations to their lowest point in several decades, the two countries have engaged each other afresh. This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority.
Saheb Singh Chadha
Article
India’s Oil Security Strategy: Structural Vulnerabilities and Strategic Choices
This piece argues that the present Indian strategy, based on opportunistic diversification and utilization of limited strategic reserves, remains inadequate when confronting supply disruptions. It evaluates India’s options in the short, medium, and long terms.
Vrinda Sahai
Commentary
The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports
This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.
Vrinda Sahai
Article
Military Lessons from Operation Sindoor
The India-Pakistan conflict that played out between May 6 and May 10, 2025, offers several military lessons. This article presents key takeaways from Operation Sindoor and breaks down how India’s preparations shaped the outcome and what more is needed to strengthen future readiness.
Dinakar Peri

Competitive Deterrence? The United States, China, and South Asia

More Work from Carnegie India

Commentary

A Halting Turn: India’s Military Transformation

In any defense establishment, change is an ongoing process. However, despite the best of intentions, existing bureaucracies, bound by habit and years of socialization, have their limits in implementing transformative change.

Anit Mukherjee

Paper

Threading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with China

After the chill in ties between 2020 and 2024 that brought India–China relations to their lowest point in several decades, the two countries have engaged each other afresh. This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority.

Saheb Singh Chadha

Article

India’s Oil Security Strategy: Structural Vulnerabilities and Strategic Choices

This piece argues that the present Indian strategy, based on opportunistic diversification and utilization of limited strategic reserves, remains inadequate when confronting supply disruptions. It evaluates India’s options in the short, medium, and long terms.

Vrinda Sahai

Commentary

The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports

This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.

Vrinda Sahai

Article

Military Lessons from Operation Sindoor

The India-Pakistan conflict that played out between May 6 and May 10, 2025, offers several military lessons. This article presents key takeaways from Operation Sindoor and breaks down how India’s preparations shaped the outcome and what more is needed to strengthen future readiness.

Dinakar Peri