• Research
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie India logoCarnegie lettermark logo
AI
India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal
Book

India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal

This book examines the forces—political, strategic, technological, and ideational—that led to India's dramatic nuclear policy shift and describes how New Delhi's force-in-being will be fashioned, particularly in light of the threat India faces from its two most salient adversaries, China, and Pakistan.

Link Copied
By Ashley J. Tellis
Published on Oct 13, 2001

Additional Links

RAND Corporation

RAND Corporation

On May 11, 1998, after a hiatus of more than two decades, India conducted a series of nuclear tests that signaled a critical shift in its strategic thinking. Once content to embrace a nuclear posture consisting largely of "maintaining the option"—i.e., neither creating a nuclear arsenal nor renouncing its right to do so—India is now on the threshold of adopting a posture that, while stopping short of creating a ready arsenal, will take as its goal the establishment of a "minimum but credible deterrent," known as a "force-in-being." India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal examines the forces—political, strategic, technological, and ideational—that led to this dramatic policy shift and describes how New Delhi's force-in-being will be fashioned, particularly in light of the threat India faces from its two most salient adversaries, China, and Pakistan.

About the Author

Ashley J. Tellis

Former Senior Fellow

Ashley J. Tellis was a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

    Recent Work

  • Paper
    Multipolar Dreams, Bipolar Realities: India’s Great Power Future

      Ashley J. Tellis

  • Commentary
    India Sees Opportunity in Trump’s Global Turbulence. That Could Backfire.

      Ashley J. Tellis

Ashley J. Tellis
Former Senior Fellow

Additional Links

RAND Corporation
South AsiaIndiaPakistanNuclear Policy

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie India

  • Article
    Build, Not Buy: The Semiconductor Lesson that Indian AI Experts Must Learn

    As AI grows more sophisticated, as the supply chains that power it become more contested, and as access to frontier models becomes geopolitically charged, India must begin to ask a different set of questions. Not what applications it can build on someone else’s infrastructure but what the world needs.

      Konark Bhandari

  • Article
    India’s Stake in the Global Subsea Cable Race

    The Indian Ocean Region hosts one of the densest concentrations of subsea cables in the world. Yet, despite accounting for a significant share of global internet traffic, India’s participation remains limited.

      Charukeshi Bhatt

  • Commentary
    AI in Outer Space: Opportunities, Risks, and the Governance Gap

    How is AI reshaping space security, creating governance challenges, and where does international diplomacy stand today?

      Tejas Bharadwaj, Almudena Azcárate Ortega

  • Paper
    Threading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with China

    After the chill in ties between 2020 and 2024 that brought India–China relations to their lowest point in several decades, the two countries have engaged each other afresh. This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority.

      Saheb Singh Chadha

  • Article
    Managing Divergence: India’s BRICS Presidency in 2026

    This piece argues that India’s central challenge is not managing a single flashpoint but resolving the underlying tension between expansion and institutional coherency of the BRICS grouping.

      Vrinda Sahai

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie India
Carnegie India logo, white
Unit C-4, 5, 6, EdenparkShaheed Jeet Singh MargNew Delhi – 110016, IndiaPhone: 011-40078687
  • Research
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie India
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.