Source: The New York Times

Already IllegitimateThe choices for most Afghans in the runoff elections on Nov. 7 are so bleak that whoever wins will lack popular legitimacy. Paradoxically, Hamid Karzai draws most of his votes from the Pashtun areas of the south and the east of the country, where his government is at its most unpopular.

This reinforces the growing alienation of the Afghans toward Kabul, and threatens to smother the nascent democratic government in its cradle.

In the first round of elections in August, the Hazara ethnic group in northern Afghanistan agreed to deliver its votes to Karzai, but nonetheless split in support of rival candidate and former planning minister Ramazan Bashardost, and the Uzbek warlord Rashid Dostum failed to rally decisive support for Karzai.

This time around, the weather will be worse, and the plain fact is, most Afghans don’t like their options enough to vote.

From what observers saw of the voting in August, real turnout was very low — much lower than the 38 percent official figure. In Helmand, despite the presence of thousands of foreign troops — who were ostensibly there to provide security for the elections — the likely turnout was probably around 5 percent. The same is probably true for Kandahar.

In many Pashtun districts in the south and east, the government controls only the provincial or district centers, and the Taliban dominate the countryside. The situation there is too dangerous, too uncertain and too insecure to send international observers. So it will be quite easy for government officials to fabricate the results of the runoff election.