Frederic Wehrey, Charles H. Johnson
{
"authors": [
"Frederic Wehrey"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Lebanon",
"Saudi Arabia",
"Gulf",
"Levant"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Democracy"
]
}Source: Getty
Crown Prince’s Power Grab Poses New Regional Risks
The sweeping arrest of royals and officials in Saudi Arabia has removed many of the last checks and balances to executive power in the country.
Source: Axios
In Saudi Arabia, foreign and domestic policy have long been intertwined: Royals use diplomacy to consolidate legitimacy at home but also to solicit consensus from Saudi elites that acts to buttress their policies abroad. All that has now changed.
In seizing vast executive powers, as in this weekend's sweeping arrest of royals and officials, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is undoing the last of those checks and balances — princely economic and security fiefdoms that acted as countervailing influences. He has freed himself to engage in ill-fated confrontations abroad that dilute Saudi power, exposing the kingdom to greater military threats and scaring off investors.
Complicating matters further, the crown prince has opened too many fronts at once: military entanglement in Yemen, a blockade of Qatar, and a campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood. Most recently, he has accused Lebanon of being a hostile power because of the dominance of the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah.
Why it matters: By risking instability and even open conflict, these moves undermine Saudi Arabia's power and play to the strengths of its regional rivals. Iran in particular thrives on disarray in the Middle East, and its militant proxies far outmatch the kingdom's.
About the Author
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Frederic Wehrey is a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his research focuses on governance, conflict, and security in Libya, North Africa, and the Persian Gulf.
- The Iran War Is a Stress Test for Gulf StatesCommentary
- Russia in Africa: Examining Moscow’s Influence and Its LimitsResearch
- +11
Frances Z. Brown, Nate Reynolds, Priyal Singh, …
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
- Smuggling and Civil Peace on Lebanon’s Border: The Case of SummaqiyyehArticle
The Lebanese authorities’ clampdown on illicit cross-border activity threatens to leave inhabitants of the historically neglected village, and the wider Akkar region, in an economically precarious position.
Mohanad Hage Ali
- Where is the Groundwork for Lebanon’s Negotiations With Israel?Commentary
A prerequisite of serious talks is that the country’s leadership consolidates majority national support for such a process.
Michael Young
- How Lebanon’s Sunnis Approach Peace With IsraelCommentary
The community seeks maintain a distance from Hezbollah, and an even greater one from normalization with their southern neighbor.
Mohamad Fawaz
- A Military Balance Sheet in the U.S. and Israeli War With IranCommentary
In an interview, Jim Lamson discusses the ongoing regional conflict and sees an unclear picture when it comes to winners and losers.
Michael Young
- Lebanon Needs a New Negotiating Strategy with IsraelCommentary
Unless Beirut lowers expectations, any setbacks will end up bolstering Hezbollah’s narrative.
Mohanad Hage Ali