As the influence of the Assad regime and Russia declines, Iran is emerging as the main actor, which could provoke a major Israeli intervention.

The Syrian regime has struggled to govern Syria’s south, while the Ukraine war has weakened Russia’s influence, making both more reliant on Tehran and its allies in the area. However, this may increase the prospects of conflict between Iran and Israel.

Syria, Azerbaijan, and some officials in Israel have conceptualized forced displacement as a mode of conflict management. That has consequences for the Western peacebuilding model.

Northwestern Syria is being consolidated into an effective canton protected and sustained by—and dependent on—Türkiye. Given the lack of prospects for any side to secure a decisive victory in the Syrian war or for a political settlement, the territory is the outcome of conflict management processes pursued by Türkiye, Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime since 2016.

The Azerbaijani assault in Nagorno-Karabakh in many ways reflects a ruthless strategy that was previously employed in Syria.

A U.S.-Iran understanding may have calmed tensions, but this was followed by Kurdish-Arab fighting that did precisely the opposite.

In an interview, Leonid Nersisyan examines Moscow’s stakes in the Levant and North Africa in light of the stalemated war in Ukraine.

In an interview, Sergei Melkonian discusses Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey’s and Israel’s efforts to expand their reach north of Iran.

The general elections in Türkiye on May 14 could see the defeat of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To discuss these developments, the MHKCMEC is organizing a panel discussion on May 15, at 4:00 EEST. Among the participants will be Alper Coskun, Barcin Yinanc, and Selin Nasi. The discussion will be in English and moderated by Armenak Tokmajyan.

Ongoing negotiations between Syria and Türkiye may change the outlines of their border regions. But they won't alter the basic reality of cantonization.