The trends of 2022 in no way signal decentralization or re-federalization. Russia’s central government adheres to a simplified version of the Soviet model, which includes a rigid power vertical.
The aim of the ceasefire proposal was to force the Ukrainian army and politicians to reject it in view of the Ukrainian public, who are often left without electricity, water, heating, or transport by Russia’s bombing campaign.
A fall in Russia’s GDP, decrease in its share in the global economy, and depopulation could all reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Russia, but can hardly be seen as genuine decarbonization.
The problems in bilateral relations are unlikely to disappear any time soon. Ukraine won’t want to become another buffer zone separating Russia and the West, but that is the scenario Germany will give serious consideration, fearing another war or Moscow’s nuclear threats.
In 2023, Russia faces three crucial issues—President Vladimir Putin’s plans for his future, the battle between the hawks and pragmatists in the elite, and looming government personnel changes—that could reshape the country.
Moscow had every opportunity to make the Central Asian nations gravitate toward it of their own accord. Yet now Russian soft power in Central Asia is dissipating before our eyes.
