Commentary
Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [
"Eurasia in Transition"
],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Iran",
"Syria"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy",
"Nuclear Policy",
"Nuclear Energy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Working for His Nobel
Obama needs to follow up on the Syrian disarmament plan and be ready to augment it by a serious effort at a political settlement in Syria within the Geneva framework. If there is to be a solution on Syria, Iran should be part of it. Engaging the Iranians on Syria would be a confidence building measure which would also help in the nuclear talks.
Published on Sep 30, 2013
The opening week of the UN General Assembly annual meeting in New York was dominated by two issues: the chemical weapons in Syria and Iran’s nuclear program. On both issues, there have been early breakthroughs. The UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution to guide the process of Syria’s chemical disarmament, while the presidents of the United States and Iran had their first phone conversation since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. These initial signs of cooperation between rivals and adversaries may constitute a rare positive change in the political dynamic in the Middle East, or they may be a false dawn.
Even if one is an optimist, one has to accept that implementing the chemical weapons agreement under conditions of a raging civil war will be extremely difficult. One would have to make sure that Assad is not cheating; that the rebels do not stage assault on chemical weapons storage facilities; that the international force secures all relevant facilities and makes any further use of chemical weapons physically impossible; that the weapons are then removed for elimination; and that they are finally safely disposed of. It is certainly hard to be an optimist on this score, but all other options are worse.
The U.S.-Iranian rapprochement which had eluded Washington and Tehran for so long is now official. The first baby steps have been made to break the ice. However, even under the best of circumstances, the ice will take a long time to melt, and clearing it altogether is an absolutely daunting task. Yet, both Barack Obama and Hassan Rowhani—with the Supreme Leader Khamenei behind him—appear to realize that now they have the best chance ever to reach accommodation between their countries. Others see this too, and are getting nervous. Skeptics in Israel are concerned that Obama may give Iran too much. On Saturday, a news anchor on the main analytical program of Russian television expressed the Kremlin’s unease at seeing the Five-plus-One talks on Iran overshadowed by the direct negotiating link between Tehran and Washington. These concerns and worries indicate that the shift in the U.S.-Iranian relations is deemed possible.
President Obama, who only a few weeks ago looked trapped and cornered in the Middle East, now has a great opportunity to clinch a brilliant diplomatic victory from the teeth of a seemingly certain defeat. It will not happen automatically, though. Obama needs to follow up on the Syrian disarmament plan and be ready to augment it by a serious effort at a political settlement in Syria within the Geneva framework. If there is to be a solution on Syria, Iran should be part of it. Engaging the Iranians on Syria would be a confidence building measure which would also help in the nuclear talks. Obama has his work cut out for him, but he can actually earn his Nobel.
About the Author
Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Could Migrants From India and Africa Solve Russia’s Labor Shortage?Commentary
The demands of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, demographic problems, and public hostility toward Central Asians mean Russia does not have enough workers.
Salavat Abylkalikov
- Russian Market Sours for Belarusian State CompaniesCommentary
Minsk’s faith in the future of its larger neighbor’s economy is fading as Belarusian firms in Russia see record losses.
Olga Loiko
- Did Putin Return From China Empty-Handed?Commentary
With no key agreement signed on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, there is a risk that the window of opportunity for Russia will close if Chinese power generation becomes so green that new gas sources are no longer of any interest to Beijing.
Alexander Gabuev
- What Does Central Europe’s Post-Orban Russia Policy Look Like?Commentary
Though Orban is gone, Putin can still count on some like-minded individuals in Central and Eastern Europe. However, they will seek to avoid open confrontation with EU institutions over Ukraine and their ties with Moscow.
Dimitar Bechev
- Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?Commentary
The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.
James D.J. Brown
