Paper
Julia Gurganus, Eugene Rumer
{
"authors": [
"Julia Gurganus"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [
"The Return of Global Russia: A Reassessment of the Kremlin’s International Agenda"
],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"South America",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Economy",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Venezuela: A New U.S.–Russia Battleground
Putin is less interested in President Nicolás Maduro and his regime than in using him as a thorn in Washington’s side. Venezuela’s crisis provides Putin with a like-minded collaborator eager to denounce the United States.
Published on May 22, 2018
Source: Axios
The Kremlin, buoyed by its success in helping the Assad regime stave off collapse, is trying to pull off a similar trick in a troubled part of America’s backyard: Venezuela. The Trump White House is having none of it, but a new stage is being set for U.S.–Russia confrontation.
The big picture: Putin is less interested in President Nicolás Maduro and his regime than in using him as a thorn in Washington’s side. Venezuela’s crisis provides Putin with a like-minded collaborator eager to denounce the U.S.
Vice President Pence had called for a delay ahead of Venezuela’s election this past Sunday on grounds of expected fraud. The Trump administration has used a combination of diplomatic pressure, together with other Latin American governments and Europe, and tough sanctions to isolate and push Maduro into compromising with his opponents.
Moscow responded with a full-throated embrace of Maduro and over-the-top accusations of Washington-engineered regime change. So, why does Moscow choose to back Maduro, even as Venezuela teeters on the brink of collapse? On several issues, there is a clear alignment of interests and world view:
- Sanctions: Moscow has long opposed sanctions as a foreign policy tool, especially from the U.S., which has recently levied several waves of individual, corporate and sectoral sanctions against Russia. The U.S. stepped up pressure on Maduro this week, announcing new sanctions that prohibit the purchase of Venezuelan government debt.
- Multipolarity: Moscow chafes at U.S. global leadership, and Maduro presides over a ruined economy while looking for a financial lifeline that circumvents Western institutions and sanctions. Together, the two countries look to build alternatives, such as this year’s lackluster launch of the Petro, Venezuela’s digital currency.
- Authoritarianism: Moscow and Caracas share an aversion to genuine democratic governance, ruling by sidelining opposition candidates, enriching their inner circles at the expense of the public good and running sham elections.
- Anti-U.S. stance: In recent months, Maduro and Putin have flaunted their mutual support in the face of U.S. pressure, blaming U.S. sanctions for their economic problems and using them to whip up domestic support.
- Money: Russia’s state oil company Rosneft has been making loans to Maduro in exchange for stakes in Venezuela’s oil. As long as Maduro is in power, Rosneft’s investment looks good.
Why it matters: If Moscow is successful in bailing out the Maduro regime, it will secure its foothold in the region.
About the Author
Julia Gurganus
Former Nonresident Scholar, Russia and Eurasia Program
Julia Gurganus was a nonresident scholar with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her research focus is on trends in Russian foreign policy and Russia-U.S. relations.
- Russia’s Global Ambitions in Perspective
- Russia: Playing a Geopolitical Game in Latin AmericaArticle
Julia Gurganus
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Who Is Funding Russia’s War in the 2027 Budget?Commentary
For every ruble allocated to social policy, health, and education in 2027, double that amount is earmarked for the army, the police, and the security services.
Alexandra Prokopenko
- International Demand for Russia’s Arctic Shipping Route Is Unlikely to LastCommentary
Cargo traffic through Russia’s Northern Sea Route has increased because of the disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the Ukraine war, and U.S.-China tensions.
Mikhail Korostikov
- What Traffic Accident Numbers Reveal About Russia’s Gasoline CrisisCommentary
An analysis of traffic accident data suggests that Ukrainian drone attacks caused a material but not disastrous fall in Russian gasoline consumption over the summer.
Sergey Vakulenko
- How the Kremlin Achieved Its Latest Implausible Election ResultsCommentary
Sergei Kiriyenko used Russia’s parliamentary vote to further hone his strategy of corporate mobilization that is designed to maximize votes for United Russia.
Andrey Pertsev
- Belarus Wants More From the West Than a ‘Massive Deal’ on PotashCommentary
Trump has promised Belarus a massive potash deal. But Minsk is seeking something greater: restored Western transit and greater room for maneuver from Russia.
Balázs Jarábik
