Article
Paul Stronski
{
"authors": [
"Paul Stronski"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North Africa",
"Southern, Eastern, and Western Africa",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Putin Hosts African Leaders to Rile West, but With Little to Offer Them
Putin’s main goal was to rattle the United States and Europe, which have taken Russia’s decades-long absence from Africa for granted.
Published on Oct 24, 2019
Source: Axios
The pomp and circumstance of this week's Sochi summit, where President Vladimir Putin hosted 43 senior African leaders, furthers a narrative Russia is crafting about its return to the continent.
The big picture: Putin's main goal was to rattle the U.S. and Europe, which have taken Russia’s decades-long absence from Africa for granted. Despite his hype, however, cash-strapped Russia’s reach on the continent is still a far cry from what China, the West and many lesser powers can muster when it comes to financing, trade, investment and even influence.
Context: Opportunism drives the foreign policy Russia is pursuing in Africa today — a departure from the ideological approach of the USSR, which invested heavily in military and security ties and economic development to create client regimes among revolutionary and post-colonial leaders.
- Despite the Trump administration’s rhetorical focus on “great power competition,” the U.S. and its allies have disengaged from Africa, creating vacuums Moscow can exploit.
- Yet Russia's influence is not expanding across the board. Its deepest inroads are in highly troubled countries, such as the Central African Republic, or pariah states such as Sudan and Zimbabwe that are often under UN sanctions.
Between the lines: During the 2000s, the Kremlin envisioned Africa as part of a “multipolar world” that would not be led by Washington.
- Africa’s heavy representation in the UN — it accounts for more than 25% of countries in the UN General Assembly — made it an important target.
- Since 2014, nimble Russian diplomacy and old-fashioned vote-buying has strengthened African support for Moscow’s stances on Crimea, Syria and Libya.
Yes, but: Russia has little economic penetration on the continent.
- In 2017, trade between Russia and sub-Saharan Africa was $3 billion, well behind China's $56 billion and the U.S.' $27 billion. The most significant mineral and energy opportunities it's pursuing have already been examined or discarded by other players.
- Limited resources and risk appetite have left Russia falling back on tools like sending Kremlin-connected mercenaries to conflict zones or offering consulting services to autocratic regimes on election manipulation.
What to watch: No ground-breaking trade, investment or security announcements came out of the summit, suggesting the gathering was more symbolic than substantive. But if Moscow expands its Africa policy after the summit and under the West's inattentive watch, it could be a far greater worry for the West.
About the Author
Paul Stronski
Former Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Paul Stronski was a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
- Russia’s Growing Footprint in Africa’s Sahel Region
- Russia in the Balkans After Ukraine: A Troubling ActorCommentary
Paul Stronski
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Who Is Responsible for the Demise of the Russian Internet?Commentary
The Russian state has opted for complete ideological control of the internet and is prepared to bear the associated costs.
Maria Kolomychenko
- Russia’s Coal Industry Is Running on Borrowed TimeCommentary
Powerful lobbyists and inertia led to Russia’s coal-mining sector missing an excellent opportunity to solve its structural problems.
Alexey Gusev
- Is Opposition to Online Restrictions an Inflection Point for the Russian Regime?Commentary
After four years of war, there is no one who can stand up to the security establishment, and President Vladimir Putin is increasingly passive.
Tatiana Stanovaya
- What’s Having More Impact on Russian Oil Export Revenues: Ukrainian Strikes or Rising Prices?Commentary
Although Ukrainian strikes have led to a noticeable decline in the physical volume of Russian oil exports, the rise in prices has more than made up for it.
Sergey Vakulenko
- Russia Is Meddling for Meddling’s Sake in the Middle EastCommentary
The Russian leadership wants to avoid a dangerous precedent in which it is squeezed out of Iran by the United States and Israel—and left powerless to respond in any meaningful way.
Nikita Smagin
