Depleted financial reserves and a shrinking tax base mean it is no longer possible to simultaneously deliver high defense spending, price stability, and economic growth.
Alexandra Prokopenko
{
"authors": [
"Elina Noor",
"Hunter Marston",
"Bich Tran",
"Richard Javad Heydarian"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [
"Dynamic Security Risks in Asia",
"Southeast Asia’s Diverse Futures"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "AP",
"programs": [
"Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"East Asia",
"China",
"Southeast Asia"
],
"topics": [
"Economy",
"Security",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}REQUIRED IMAGE
Southeast Asian countries have adopted an array of hedging tactics around the South China Sea to deepen engagement with China while bolstering their own domestic defense capabilities and simultaneously expanding security cooperation with a variety of external partners.
Nonresident Scholar, Asia Program
Elina Noor is a nonresident scholar in the Asia Program at Carnegie where she focuses on developments in Southeast Asia, particularly the impact and implications of technology in reshaping power dynamics, governance, and nation-building in the region.
Hunter Marston
Bich Tran
Bich Tran is an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
Richard Javad Heydarian
Richard Javad Heydarian is an academic, author, and incoming fellow at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. He is the author of The Rise of Duterte: A Populist Revolt Against Elite Democracy (2017), Asia’s New Battlefield: The US, China and the Struggle for the Western Pacific (2015), and The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China and the New Global Struggle for Mastery (forthcoming).
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
Depleted financial reserves and a shrinking tax base mean it is no longer possible to simultaneously deliver high defense spending, price stability, and economic growth.
Alexandra Prokopenko
With the growth in points of friction between the great powers, organizations like the SCO will continue to play a role in the strategic adaptation of the smaller powers caught between them.
Temur Umarov
When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.
Galiya Ibragimova
Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart.
Tatiana Stanovaya
Andrey Melnichenko’s essay offers no answer to the fundamental question of how, under any kind of negotiated settlement, Europe can protect itself from the Russian ressentiment that is inevitable in all scenarios except for an outright victory for Putin.
Leonid Bershidsky