Commentary
Thomas de Waal
{
"authors": [
"Thomas de Waal"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Caucasus",
"Russia",
"Georgia"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Sochi and Georgia: A Missed Opportunity
The Sochi Olympics could become the pretext for a real rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi. However, conversation between Russia and Georgia about the insurgency in the North Caucasus never started, and in the future this will be remembered as a missed opportunity.
Published on Feb 5, 2014
Russia was lucky with the timing. If the vote on the venue of the Winter Olympics had been held in the summer of 2008, rather than a year earlier, the International Olympic Committee would surely not have awarded the 2014 games to a city located right next to a conflict zone.
Since Sochi won the right to host the Olympics in 2007, the region next door has been through war, Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states and a partial thaw caused by the election of the Georgian Dream government in October 2012.
Had Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement won the election in 2012, it is likely that Georgia would have boycotted Sochi and relations between Moscow and Tbilisi would have deteriorated even further.
Instead, for a moment in 2012, it looked as though the Sochi games could become the "peace games," the pretext for a real rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi. The new Georgian government announced it would not be boycotting the games. It quietly dropped its politicization of the Circassian issue. The Foreign Minister Maia Panjikidze mused aloud to me that it would be wonderful if she could get in her car and drive across Abkhazia to Sochi.
It was not to be. The Russian-Georgian dialogue established in 2012 has succeeded in restoring trade relations. The Georgian economy has received a boost from getting its wine and agricultural products back on the Russian market. The two sides are discussing visa liberalization.
Georgia is sending four competitors to Sochi and a small delegation from its Olympic Committee. Flights between Tbilisi and Sochi will operate for the duration of the games. The most recent opinion poll says that 66 percent of Georgians approve of their country participating in the games and only 17 percent disapprove.
But one important conversation never started—the one in which Russia and Georgia talk about the never-ending insurgency in the North Caucasus and what the Georgians can do about it. That would have been good for both security and politics. Instead, the Russian government's approach to securing the games has been "Don't talk to the Neighbors." Moscow has actually tightened the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the past year.
In the future this will surely be remembered as a missed opportunity.
About the Author
Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
- There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia
- Rewiring the South Caucasus: TRIPP and the New Geopolitics of ConnectivityArticle
Thomas de Waal, Areg Kochinyan, Zaur Shiriyev
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie China
- Trump and Xi Are Angling for Three Years of StabilityCommentary
But their "principal to principal" model will only be as effective as the political strength of each leader back home.
Damien Ma
- China Sells Stability Amid American VolatilityCommentary
U.S. unpredictability has allowed China to capitalize on its positioning as the “responsible great power”. Paradoxically, the more China wins the perception game, the more likely expectations will rise for Beijing to deliver not just words but to demonstrate with its deeds.
Chong Ja Ian
- Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China’s DirectionCommentary
Hanoi and Beijing have long treated each other as distant cousins rather than comrades in arms. That might be changing as both sides draw closer to hedge against uncertainty and America’s erratic behavior.
Nguyễn Khắc Giang
- China’s Energy Security Doesn’t Run Through Hormuz but Through the Electrification of EverythingCommentary
Across Asia, China is better positioned to withstand energy shocks from the fallout of the Iran war. Its abundant coal capacity can ensure stability in the near term. Yet at the same time, the country’s energy transition away from coal will make it even less vulnerable during the next shock.
Damien Ma
- Malaysia’s Year as ASEAN Chair: Managing DisorderCommentary
Malaysia’s chairmanship sought to fend off short-term challenges while laying the groundwork for minimizing ASEAN’s longer-term exposure to external stresses.
Elina Noor
