Commentary
Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Russia",
"Eastern Europe",
"Ukraine"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Security",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Ukraine Will Not Die, But It Can Multiply
Russia certainly pursues its interests in Ukraine, as does the United States, but the actual forces engaged there are the locals. The victorious Maidan has proven both unwilling and powerless to bridge or stitch together the fault lines which have emerged.
Published on May 12, 2014
Ten days ago, it was the murderous fire in Odessa. Last Friday, the shooting in Mariupol. Both the actions and the inactions of the interim authorities in Kiev helped to split Ukraine, in the name of saving it. The notion that the prime source of Ukraine’s current troubles lies in the Kremlin and that the Ukrainian military and security forces are facing terrorists in the east is self-delusion. Developments in Ukraine follow their own dynamic, and its pace is quickening. The presidential elections set for May 25 will not bring a magic solution. A point may soon be reached when an internally federalized and internationally neutralized Ukraine—Moscow’s mantra—will not be possible.
President Vladimir Putin, so far, has avoided the temptation of a military invasion. Had he decided to go for it, the Russian army would have stepped into a quagmire which would have made the Soviet experience in Afghanistan look a brief and relatively inexpensive excursion by comparison. After his meeting with the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Didier Burkhalter, Putin has even given a qualified endorsement to the presidential elections in Ukraine and “recommended” that the May 11 referenda in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions on their self-determination be postponed. The recommendation was not heeded and Putin was accused of duplicity, but large numbers of people apparently did come and vote.
One can dismiss the regional referenda as illegal, although it is a weak argument in Ukraine’s post-revolutionary context. One can dismiss the real internal divisions in Ukraine only at one’s own peril. Russia certainly pursues its interests in Ukraine, as does the United States, but the actual forces engaged there are the locals. The victorious Maidan has nudged Ukraine off its post-Soviet immobility, but it has proven both unwilling and powerless to bridge or stitch together the fault lines which have emerged. Ukraine will not die, but it can multiply.
About the Author
Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie China
- Trump and Xi Are Angling for Three Years of StabilityCommentary
But their "principal to principal" model will only be as effective as the political strength of each leader back home.
Damien Ma
- China Sells Stability Amid American VolatilityCommentary
U.S. unpredictability has allowed China to capitalize on its positioning as the “responsible great power”. Paradoxically, the more China wins the perception game, the more likely expectations will rise for Beijing to deliver not just words but to demonstrate with its deeds.
Chong Ja Ian
- Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China’s DirectionCommentary
Hanoi and Beijing have long treated each other as distant cousins rather than comrades in arms. That might be changing as both sides draw closer to hedge against uncertainty and America’s erratic behavior.
Nguyễn Khắc Giang
- China’s Energy Security Doesn’t Run Through Hormuz but Through the Electrification of EverythingCommentary
Across Asia, China is better positioned to withstand energy shocks from the fallout of the Iran war. Its abundant coal capacity can ensure stability in the near term. Yet at the same time, the country’s energy transition away from coal will make it even less vulnerable during the next shock.
Damien Ma
- Malaysia’s Year as ASEAN Chair: Managing DisorderCommentary
Malaysia’s chairmanship sought to fend off short-term challenges while laying the groundwork for minimizing ASEAN’s longer-term exposure to external stresses.
Elina Noor
