Commentary
Judy Dempsey
{
"authors": [
"Judy Dempsey"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
"programAffiliation": "EP",
"programs": [
"Europe"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Europe",
"Western Europe",
"Germany",
"Iran"
],
"topics": [
"EU"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
What Angela Merkel’s Departure Means for Germany and Its Allies
Merkel’s decisions to step down as leader of her party and to not run for reelection in 2021 will have repercussions for Germany, Europe, and the transatlantic relationship.
By Judy Dempsey
Published on Oct 31, 2018
Source: Axios
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decisions to step down as leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party in December and to not run for re-election in 2021 will have repercussions for Germany, Europe and the transatlantic relationship.
The big picture: Merkel’s leadership has been marked by her commitments to decency, multilateralism and diplomacy. Even in the face of the far-right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Germany's center will still hold, but her replacement will probably shift the CDU rightward.
Domestic politics will dominate Germany in the coming months.The CDU has been thrown into a leadership struggle to be settled in December.
- Merkel herself will probably be spared criticism over her party leadership and her 2015 decision to allow 1 million refugees to enter Germany. But her successor will be charged with the difficult task of uniting the party, giving it some direction and winning back voters who defected to the anti-immigrant AfD.
- If a new leader shifts the CDU further to the right, the party will risk losing voters to the Greens, the center-left environmentalist party that currently opposes the federal parliament and has been attracting disappointed voters.
Merkel has been a linchpin for the EU, keeping it united during the euro crisis and pushing all 28 member states to impose sanctions on Russia after its illegal 2014 annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine.
- Merkel will still hold sway after December, but her authority will no doubt diminish.
- Several EU leaders think it’s time to reconsider the sanctions.
- Finally, unless Merkel has a change of heart, French President Emmanuel Macron can forget about winning support from Berlin for his ambitious reforms to further economically and politically integrate the EU. Merkel has so far kept Macron and the EU in waiting mode.
The transatlantic alliance will also be tested. There are two trends running throughout Europe:
- An anti-Trump sentiment that feeds into anti-Americanism, particularly from left-wing parties.
- A pro-Trump camp comprising populist and nationalist movements that embrace anti-immigrant and anti-globalist policies. It’s not surprising they have sympathies with Trump, who criticized Merkel’s support of refugees, free trade and the Iran nuclear deal.
What’s next: Unless Merkel feels liberated from the daily management of the CDU to make bold moves for Europe’s future, don’t expect any major EU integration or security initiatives from Berlin — at least not before European parliamentary elections are held next spring and a new European Commission has been chosen.
About the Author
Judy Dempsey
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Dempsey is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe
- Europe Needs to Hear What America is Saying
- Babiš’s Victory in Czechia Is Not a Turning Point for European PopulistsCommentary
Judy Dempsey
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie China
- China-Europe Relations, Two Years After Russia Invaded UkraineCommentary
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a turning point in the EU-China relationship, and evolution of the China-Russia relationship will continue to impact EU-China relations.
Yifan Ding, Alice Ekman
- Is Europe Aligned on China?Commentary
Recent visits by European officials highlight the EU’s lack of internal cohesion.
- +1
Paul Haenle, Chan Heng Chee, Liu Yawei, …
- Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Has Jeopardized the China-EU RelationshipCommentary
“It’s not so clear how we’re going to get out of this.”
Paul Haenle, Philippe Le Corre
- What the Russian War in Ukraine Means for the Middle EastCommentary
It’s about managing oil prices, bread prices, and strategic partnerships.
- +8
Amr Hamzawy, Karim Sadjadpour, Aaron David Miller, …
- The Race of Chinese Companies in the 5G CompetitionCommentary
With the potential of enabling not only significant economic growth but also the innovation of critical technologies in various fields, both the United States and China view 5G as one of the key influencing factors in the “great power competition.”
Lyu Jinghua
