• Commentary
  • Research
  • Experts
  • Events
Carnegie China logoCarnegie lettermark logo
{
  "authors": [
    "Thomas de Waal"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Europe’s Eastern Neighborhood"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "EP",
  "programs": [
    "Europe"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Russia",
    "Eastern Europe",
    "Caucasus",
    "Azerbaijan",
    "Armenia",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

Other
Carnegie Europe

The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in Its Fourth Decade

The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains the most dangerous conflict in the post-Soviet space. Even if political tensions have eased since 2018, the region remains dangerously militarized.

Link Copied
By Thomas de Waal
Published on Dec 24, 2019

Source: CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

The Nagorny Karabakh conflict is the longest-running unresolved dispute in the former Soviet Union, dating back to the middle of the Gorbachev era in 1988. It is also potentially the most dangerous, as Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a perpetual state of military readiness to go to war again over the disputed territory they fought over in 1991-94. At the end of that conflict, the Armenian side prevailed at great cost. Around 20,000 people died and one million people were displaced on both sides, the majority of them Azerbaijanis. A brief upsurge of fighting in 2016 cost around 200 lives.

Read Full Text

This publication was prepared within the framework of the CEPS-led 3DCFTAs project, enabled by financial support from Sweden. To download the publication, please consult the following link.

About the Author

Thomas de Waal

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

    Recent Work

  • Article
    Rewiring the South Caucasus: TRIPP and the New Geopolitics of Connectivity
      • Areg Kochinyan

      Thomas de Waal, Areg Kochinyan, Zaur Shiriyev

  • Commentary
    Europolis, Where Europe Ends

      Thomas de Waal

Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Thomas de Waal
SecurityRussiaEastern EuropeCaucasusAzerbaijanArmeniaIran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie China

  • Commentary
    China’s Mediation Offer in the Thailand-Cambodia Border Dispute Sheds Light on Beijing’s Security Role in Southeast Asia

    The Thai-Cambodian conflict highlights the limits to China's peacemaker ambition and the significance of this role on Southeast Asia’s balance of power.

      Pongphisoot (Paul) Busbarat

  • Trump and Xi on a red background
    Commentary
    Emissary
    China Is Determined to Hold Firm Against Trump’s Pressure

    Beijing believes that Washington is overestimating its own leverage and its ability to handle the trade war’s impacts. 

      • Sheena Chestnut Greitens

      Rick Waters, Sheena Chestnut Greitens

  • Commentary
    A Second Trump Term: Will Southeast Asia Tilt Toward China?

    Tapping our network of China experts in the region, Carnegie China offers this latest “China Through a Southeast Asian Lens” report to offer preliminary assessments of whether the U.S. effort to reshape the global trading order will lead countries in the region to tilt toward Beijing. 

      • +6

      Selina Ho, Khin Khin Kyaw Kyee, Joseph Ching Velasco, …

  • Commentary
    Is China Willing to Influence Russia on the Ukraine War?

    Beijing is trying to navigate the overall situation regarding Ukraine, especially the substance of interactions between Washington and Moscow.

      • Ellen Nakashima
      • Zhao Long
      • +1

      Ellen Nakashima, Zhao Long, Pavlo Klimkin, …

  • Commentary
    The Challenges Behind China’s Global South Policies

    While China will remain a significant political and economic force in the Global South, its ambition to leverage the Global South as a counterbalance to the United States and the Global North is far from assured.

      Xue Gong

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie China
Carnegie China logo, white
Keck Seng Tower133 Cecil Street #10-01ASingapore, 069535Phone: +65 9650 7648
  • Research
  • About
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie China
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.