Commentary
European reactions to the war in Iran have lost sight of wider political dynamics. The EU must position itself for the next phase of the crisis without giving up on its principles.
Richard Youngs
{
"authors": [],
"type": "pressRelease",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"North Africa",
"Egypt",
"Palestine"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Economy"
]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE
Press Release
International Push for Palestinian Unity Needed
Ongoing Palestinian unity talks brokered by Egypt have little chance of success without a significant international push, concludes a commentary by Nathan J. Brown.
Published on Nov 4, 2008
WASHINGTON, Nov 4—As Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice travels to the Middle East this week for another round of negotiations in the Israeli–Palestinian peace process, deep divisions and institutional decay on the Palestinian side remain the most daunting obstacles to peace. Ongoing Palestinian unity talks brokered by Egypt have little chance of success without a significant international push, concludes a new commentary by Nathan J. Brown.
Divided Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah have little incentive to reach an agreement, despite widespread regional and Palestinian support for the talks. Hamas remains focused on building a party-state within Gaza, while Fatah sees little benefit in sharing power with a movement that would likely overwhelm it.
Key Conclusions:
- Fatah remains deeply dependent on its international allies for legitimacy and financial support. Strong European and U.S. support for Palestinian reconciliation would be difficult for Fatah’s leaders to resist, but requires a reversal of current Western policy.
- Egypt has capitalized on both sides’ deep dependence on it to ensure their participation in the talks. It could further persuade Hamas to reach an agreement by leveraging the organization’s economic dependence on the Gaza–Egyptian border and offering an end to Hamas’ economic isolation.
- January 2009 looms as an ominous deadline. Hamas has repeatedly indicated that it will no longer recognize Mahmoud Abbas as president after January 2009, recognizing instead its own Ahmad Bahar—leaving Palestinians with two presidents.
Brown concludes:
“It is not clear if any of the international actors with cards to play feel they have enough to gain from Palestinian reconciliation. And absent any concerted effort to bring full pressure on both Gaza and Ramallah, it is likely that the current division will continue. Actually, the division will likely deepen. In January 2009, the institutional and legal rupture between the West Bank and Gaza could become nearly complete, with Hamas claiming untrammeled authority in Gaza.”
###
- Direct link to the PDF: www.carnegieendowment.org/files/cairo_palestine.pdf
- Nathan J. Brown is director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at George Washington University, a nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment, and a distinguished scholar and author of four well-received books on Arab politics.
- The Carnegie Middle East Program provides analysis and recommendations in both English and Arabic that are deeply informed by knowledge and views from the region.
- The Carnegie Middle East Center based in Beirut, Lebanon, aims to better inform the process of political change in the Middle East.
- Carnegie's Arab Reform Bulletin has been transformed into a full-featured website that offers greatly enhanced search functionality, the option for readers to comment on articles, and frequent news updates.
- Press Contact: Trent Perrotto, 202/939-2372, tperrotto@ceip.org
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- The EU Needs a Third Way in Iran
- Europe on Iran: Gone with the WindCommentary
Europe’s reaction to the war in Iran has been disunited and meek, a far cry from its previously leading role in diplomacy with Tehran. To avoid being condemned to the sidelines while escalation continues, Brussels needs to stand up for international law.
Pierre Vimont
- How Europe Can Survive the AI Labor TransitionCommentary
Integrating AI into the workplace will increase job insecurity, fundamentally reshaping labor markets. To anticipate and manage this transition, the EU must build public trust, provide training infrastructures, and establish social protections.
Amanda Coakley
- Can Europe Still Matter in Syria?Commentary
Europe’s interests in Syria extend beyond migration management, yet the EU trails behind other players in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. To boost its influence in Damascus, the union must upgrade its commitment to ensuring regional stability.
Bianka Speidl, Hanga Horváth-Sántha
- Taking the Pulse: Can the EU Attract Foreign Investment and Reduce Dependencies?Commentary
EU member states clash over how to boost the union’s competitiveness: Some want to favor European industries in public procurement, while others worry this could deter foreign investment. So, can the EU simultaneously attract global capital and reduce dependencies?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
