Commentary
Alexey Malashenko
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Source: Getty
In The Media
Any Euphoria on Karabakh Conflict Settlement Perspectives Premature
The Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia presidential summit in Sochi is unlikely to change the situation with Karabakh, but may reignite the stagnated negotiation process. Russian involvement is key to its presence in the Caucasus.
Published on Jan 26, 2010
Source: PanARMENIAN.Net
Sill, according to him, Sochi meeting can’t be characterized as formal or meaningless. As Alexey Malashenko noted, compromise approach capable of helping the negotiation process out of standstill could be developed.
“Hopes for development of compromise approach were linked to activation of Ankara’s foreign policy and Armenia-Turkey rapprochement process. In Switzerland, Armenia and Turkey signed Protocols on opening of border and establishment of diplomatic relations. In exchange, Turkey expected Yerevan to make concessions,” he said.
According to Malashenko, Russia, pursuing personal interests, became immediately involved in the new game. “Beside Karabakh conflict settlement, Moscow is interested in intensification of economic relations with Turkey. Russia aims to accelerate construction of South Stream pipeline to transport Russian natural gas Europe.”
“Yet Armenia’s position against Turkey-Russia rapprochement served as a reminder of any euphoria on Karabakh conflict settlement perspectives being premature. In this connection, Moscow had to persuade its strategic partner of the necessity to show more flexibility in Karabakh issue. Yet, Yerevan’s unexpected persistence came to question both Armenia-Turkey rapprochement and hopes for any progress on Karabakh issue,” Kommersant quoted the expert as saying.
Moscow realizes that its involvement in Karabakh conflict settlement is one of the decisive factors for Russia’s presence in Caucasus, he concluded.
The conflict between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan broke out in 1988 as result of the ethnic cleansing the latter launched in the final years of the Soviet Union. The Karabakh War was fought from 1991 to 1994. Since the ceasefire in 1994, sealed by Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan, most of Nagorno Karabakh and several regions of Azerbaijan around it (the security zone) remain under the control of NKR defense army. Armenia and Azerbaijan are holding peace talks mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group up till now.
The Protocols aimed at normalization of bilateral ties and opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey were signed in Zurich by Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian and his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu on October 10, 2009, after a series of diplomatic talks held through Swiss mediation.
On January 12, 2010, the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Armenia found the protocols conformable to the country’s Organic Law.
About the Author
Alexey Malashenko
Former Scholar in Residence, Religion, Society, and Security Program
Malashenko is a former chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society, and Security Program.
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Alexey Malashenko
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.