Article
Paul Stronski
{
"authors": [
"Paul Stronski"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [
"Changing Geopolitics of Eurasia"
],
"regions": [
"Central Asia",
"Kazakhstan"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Why Has Kazakhstan’s President Sacked His Government?
Kazakhstan’s president has fired the government over what he called its failure to shore up crumbling living standards. Will it be enough to satisfy his citizens’ demands?
Published on Feb 22, 2019
What’s happening?
On February 21, Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev sacked his entire government. He scolded former cabinet members and regional governors for failing to address social problems or shore up the country’s social safety net. The decision comes amid growing popular anger over declining living standards, sparked by an early February house fire in the Kazakh capital that killed five children.
Nazarbayev frequently rotates his cabinet. But this mass dismissal was unprecedented in scale, as was his sharp criticism of the outgoing officials. It suggests that Nazarbayev sees an urgent need to appear decisive and divert attention away from rising socioeconomic dissatisfaction and his failed promises to improve the quality of life for average citizens in the country. In an effort to scapegoat his cabinet, Nazarbayev cited its failure to implement his decrees to create economic opportunities for the poor and middle class, diversify the economy, or improve the rule of law.
Why does it matter?
In his New Year’s address less than two months ago, Nazarbayev highlighted how the country’s quality of life, housing, and public transport have improved under his leadership. Yet average citizens do not feel these benefits. Despite years of high growth, Kazakhstan’s economy is struggling, even after oil prices recovered from the lows of 2015–2016. Economic growth is lethargic and wealth is unevenly distributed. Several rounds of currency devaluations in 2014 and 2015 wiped out the emerging middle class’ savings, and people continue to feel the pinch. Long a destination for migrant labor from other Central Asian countries, some Kazakhstani citizens are now leaving for economic opportunities abroad.
What’s next?
Kazakhstan is witnessing an uptick in nationalist sentiment and anger, as average Kazakhs grow dissatisfied with the status quo. Protests and criticism of the government on social media have likely put an end to rumors of an early election being held in 2019. Instead, the government will probably seek to increase spending on housing, education, health care, and support for families with children. It once again will pledge to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbons and fight corruption.
Nazarbayev has made similar pledges in the past. Yet his government has repeatedly failed to implement its own ambitious plans for political, economic, and social reform. Although Nazarbayev himself continues to enjoy popular legitimacy from his decades as leader of Kazakhstan, the system he put in place is experiencing a credibility crisis.
About the Author
Paul Stronski
Former Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Paul Stronski was a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
- Russia’s Growing Footprint in Africa’s Sahel Region
- Russia in the Balkans After Ukraine: A Troubling ActorCommentary
Paul Stronski
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- The EU Needs a Third Way in IranCommentary
European reactions to the war in Iran have lost sight of wider political dynamics. The EU must position itself for the next phase of the crisis without giving up on its principles.
Richard Youngs
- Can Europe Still Matter in Syria?Commentary
Europe’s interests in Syria extend beyond migration management, yet the EU trails behind other players in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. To boost its influence in Damascus, the union must upgrade its commitment to ensuring regional stability.
Bianka Speidl, Hanga Horváth-Sántha
- Europolis, Where Europe EndsCommentary
A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outward. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.
Thomas de Waal
- Armenia’s Election Is a Foreign AffairCommentary
As the 2026 Armenian election approaches, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is facing fierce opposition from both Russia and the diaspora. He will need the help of Europe, the United States, and regional neighbours to advance his ambitious foreign policy.
Thomas de Waal
- Moldova’s Election Is a Test for Russian Influence in EuropeArticle
Moldova’s parliamentary election is make-or-break for the country’s European future. The outcome will test whether Chișinău will stay on the EU accession path or fall prey to Russia’s multi-domain interference campaign.
Oana Popescu-Zamfir
