Are the Polls That Say Biden Is Beating Trump Right?

{
  "authors": [
    "Peter Kellner"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "EP",
  "programs": [
    "Europe"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "United States",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform"
  ]
}

In The Media

Carnegie Europe

Are the Polls That Say Biden Is Beating Trump Right?

Former U.S. vice president Joe Biden has drawn well ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump in the latest American polls for the presidential election in November. But is Biden’s lead real—and will it last?

By Peter Kellner

Published on Jun 29, 2020

Source: TheArticle

Joe Biden has drawn well ahead of Donald Trump in the latest American polls. This analysis seeks to answer two questions: is Biden’s lead real — and will it last?

Let’s start with what the polls currently say. According to the 538 website — the most sophisticated of the sites that monitor the polls — Biden’s national lead has held steady at around nine per cent for the past fortnight. He also leads by at least six points in four states that Trump won in 2016: Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. These states have a combined total of 75 electoral college votes. If Biden wins them all, and assuming no other states change hands, he would win the presidency with 317 electoral college votes, compared with Trump’s 221.

Biden is currently ahead, though more narrowly, in five further states, with a total of 66 electoral college votes (Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia and Iowa). If he wins all these, then he beats Trump by 383-155. A Biden super-optimist would add Texas, with its 36 electoral college votes, as a possible gain. Trump won by 9 per cent in 2016, but his polling lead is only 0.4 per cent today.

That’s what the polls say: but are they right? Here are some reasons for saying they are wrong.

Read Full Text

This article was originally published by TheArticle with the title “The polls say Biden is beating Trump — but are they right?”

About the Author

Peter Kellner

Former Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Europe

Kellner was a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focused on Brexit, populism, and electoral democracy.

Recent Work

Commentary
The Moment of Truth for a UK-EU Reset
- Peter Kellner
Commentary
The UK Braces for a Change of Direction
- Peter Kellner

Political Reform North America United States Iran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Europe

Commentary
Strategic Europe
Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy Now
Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.
Alissa de Carbonnel
Commentary
Strategic Europe
Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?
Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
Report
Europe from Scratch: Visions for a New European Order
As the EU confronts profound challenges, several leaders have called for fundamental reform to the union’s model—but only modest, superficial changes have resulted. What if Europe really could be reimagined from zero today: What should such a redesigned European order look like?
Richard Youngs, ed.
Commentary
Strategic Europe
European Sycophancy Worked on Trump
Nearly a year and a half after Europeans leaned into sucking up to Trump, the strategy has produced some benefits when it comes to Ukraine.
Rym Momtaz
Paper
When AI Agents Attack: Autonomous Cyber Operations and Europe’s Governance Gap
Autonomous AI agents are increasingly prevalent in cyberspace. The EU needs a real-time monitoring strategy, to invest in AI defenses, and to reduce its strategic dependence on U.S. frontier models.
Raluca Csernatoni, Patryk Pawlak

More Work from Carnegie Europe

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy Now

Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.

Alissa de Carbonnel

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?

Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?

Rym Momtaz, ed.

Report

Europe from Scratch: Visions for a New European Order

As the EU confronts profound challenges, several leaders have called for fundamental reform to the union’s model—but only modest, superficial changes have resulted. What if Europe really could be reimagined from zero today: What should such a redesigned European order look like?

Richard Youngs, ed.

Commentary

Strategic Europe

European Sycophancy Worked on Trump

Nearly a year and a half after Europeans leaned into sucking up to Trump, the strategy has produced some benefits when it comes to Ukraine.

Rym Momtaz

Paper

When AI Agents Attack: Autonomous Cyber Operations and Europe’s Governance Gap

Autonomous AI agents are increasingly prevalent in cyberspace. The EU needs a real-time monitoring strategy, to invest in AI defenses, and to reduce its strategic dependence on U.S. frontier models.

Raluca Csernatoni, Patryk Pawlak