• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUNATO
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Judy Dempsey"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Strategic Europe",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Europe",
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "topics": []
}
Strategic Europe logo

Source: Getty

Commentary
Strategic Europe

Judy Asks: Syrian Spillover into Lebanon: Must the West Act Now?

Every week leading experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the international challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.

Link Copied
By Judy Dempsey
Published on Oct 24, 2012
Strategic Europe

Blog

Strategic Europe

Strategic Europe offers insightful analysis, fresh commentary, and concrete policy recommendations from some of Europe’s keenest international affairs observers.

Learn More

Every week leading experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the international challenges shaping Europe's role in the world.

Olaf Boehnkehead of Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations

"As my colleague Julien Barnes-Dacey argues in a European Council on Foreign Relations policy brief, “Lebanon: Containing spillover from Syria”, published just some weeks ago, Europe can definitely help Lebanon to avoid a descent into chaos, but taking sides—whether against Hezbollah or in favor of the Anti-Assad forces—would only add fuel to the flames.

After the 2006 Lebanon war against Israel and the conflict between the former government, run by the March 14 alliance, and Hezbollah in 2008, the country managed to establish a new balance of power, including Hezbollah, the country’s dominant political and military force. So, if the West—and in particular Europe—engages, it should use its influence predominantly to support efforts aimed at forging political consensus and deescalating tensions. In particular, European states should—in firm contrast to U.S. policy—continue to talk to Hezbollah in order to assuage fears about an international conspiracy against the movement and contain its more incendiary instincts. Most political actors still agree that the country cannot fall into abyss. Significantly, though, it also shows a growing gap with Syria, which has translated into the fact that Damascus was less able than ever to dictate events in Lebanon. So, there is a good chance that Syria might be behind the recent attacks of last weekend, first to stir up instability and to create a distraction from its own crisis, and second, to draw Hezbollah into a harder line that would force them to give greater backing to Assad. The immediate response to the assassination of Wissam al-Hassan actually bodes well in that Lebanon has shown resilience. Despite its critical positions on a number of regional issues, the West has to recognize that Hezbollah has been playing a stabilizing, pragmatic role within Lebanon.

Again, in terms of a Western response, the right thing to do is: call for disassociation from Syria, and the continuation of a national dialogue and rally behind the current Mikati government instead of providing blanket, polarizing support for the March 14 alliance. Who can have an interest in forcing the collapse of the current government? Due to the fact that Europe is not seen as being as biased as the United States and some Gulf countries, it appears to be critical in using its ongoing engagement with Hezbollah to press Hassan Nasrallah to remain constructive."

Almut Möllerhead of the Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Policy Studies at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)

I have always struggled to understand the notion of “the West” and, certainly in today’s world, do not find it a very clear and useful concept. I will elaborate on this week’s Strategic Europe question from the angle of the European Union and its member states.

Must the EU and its members act now? For sure. What for many months has been discussed as a dangerous “prospect of spillover” is now starting to unfold, and it is happening on Europe’s doorstep. The area of stability and prosperity that the EU and its members ambitiously wanted to help shape with its foreign and neighborhood policy—of which Lebanon is, and Syria until recently has been a contracting partner—is currently moving in the opposite direction.

This comes at a time when the internal cohesion and social peace within the EU is challenged in parts of the “European Mediterranean”, in countries such as Greece, Spain, and Portugal. I do not want to put both developments on the same level, as they are very different in their origins and nature, and the tragedy of human lives being lost in Syria on a daily basis cannot be compared with the situation of the young, the unemployed, and the socially vulnerable in EU Mediterranean countries.

However, I want to make the point that while eurozone countries are currently prioritizing the rescue of their common currency, it would be a mistake to leave the business of foreign and security to “a later stage in the process”, as was recently suggested in the report of German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle and ten of his European colleagues. To postpone working on a joint approach to foreign and security issues to brighter days is shortsighted and cynical. This is perhaps not what the signing ministers had on their mind, but reading the pamphlet I was baffled by the extent to which it reduces questions of war and peace to institutional debates. The EU and its countries can move without prior institutional debates on strengthening the European External Action Service, discussing the potential prospect of a European army, or qualified majority voting in foreign policy. Acting together as Europeans is a question of political will and credibility, and not of institutional capacity.

Now, what kind of action is required? The EU and its member states have already joined in and thereby amplified political and diplomatic efforts of various shapes and forms—in cooperation with those willing in the UN Security Council, both bilaterally and collectively, through the work of Catherine Ashton who currently is travelling in the region, through ever more sanctions imposed on the Syrian regime, by engaging the Arab League, by continuing to work on Euro-Mediterranean formats such as the recent round of the EU-Lebanon Association Council, etc. Humanitarian aid for those in need, and reachable for governments and humanitarian organizations in Europe, has been a moral imperative.

But EU countries can still pull more of their diplomatic weight by showing greater presence and visibility in the Levant now, especially as the United States is stuck in the final days of the presidential campaigns. European leaders should join the travelling High Representative in the region. And while EU countries would certainly struggle to support military engagement, if it was on the cards—which depends more on decisions outside of Europe and is not very likely—they should not shy away from at least discussing military options more openly.

About the Author

Judy Dempsey

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Judy Dempsey is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    Europe Needs to Hear What America is Saying

      Judy Dempsey

  • Commentary
    Babiš’s Victory in Czechia Is Not a Turning Point for European Populists

      Judy Dempsey

Judy Dempsey
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Judy Dempsey
EuropeMiddle East

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Strategic Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The EU Equivocating on Turkey Is Bad Geopolitics

    Following Ursula von der Leyen’s gaffe equating Turkey to Russia and China, relations with Ankara risk deteriorating even further. Without better, more consistent diplomatic messaging, how can the EU pretend to be a geopolitical power?

      Sinan Ülgen

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Is the EU Ready for Rapprochement With the UK?

    Closer EU-UK ties could help address urgent European concerns. But is the EU ready for rapprochement with the United Kingdom?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    France, Italy, and Spain Should Use Force in Lebanon

    Europe has been standing by while its Southern neighborhood is being redrawn by force. To establish a path to peace between Israel and Lebanon, it’s time for Europeans to get involved with hard power.

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The Fog of AI War

    In Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran, AI warfare has come to dominate, with barely any oversight or accountability. Europe must lead the charge on the responsible use of new military technologies.

      Raluca Csernatoni

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    How to Join the EU in Three Easy Steps

    Montenegro and Albania are frontrunners for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, but they can’t just sit back and wait. To meet their 2030 accession ambitions, they must make a strong positive case.

      Dimitar Bechev, Iliriana Gjoni

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.