Judy Asks: Can Tusk Boost EU Foreign Policy?

I hope not. Or rather, while EU foreign policy badly needs to be boosted, it should not come from Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council. That is nothing personal, of course—he is an inspiring personality and has even managed to polish his English as he promised!

EU foreign policy needs to be boosted, but not by @eucopresident #Tusk.

 

Tweet This

Foreign policy has always been in the hands of the European Council, which brings together EU heads of state and government. What has changed in recent years (and been institutionalized by the Lisbon Treaty, which came into force in 2009) is the increased legislative role of the European Council and, consequently, of EU leaders.

There is a chance that the European External Action Service can now build on the groundwork of the past five years and start to produce real EU foreign policy. However, the service should not be transformed into a European version of the U.S. National Security Council. If there is one thing that any U.S. foreign policy observer and practitioner will agree on, it is that the centralization of foreign policy in the hands of the White House during the administration of President Barack Obama has been detrimental. The latest casualty of that process has been U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who resigned on November 24, but he is just the last in a long list.

That being said, Tusk will have a pivotal role in helping Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, achieve consensus among EU leaders on a more cohesive—and much-needed—EU foreign policy.

Donald Tusk’s inaugural statement as president of the European Council on December 1 suggested that he wants to be active in foreign policy. He talked about protecting EU values against external and internal threats, being strong internationally (including supporting those in the neighborhood who share EU values), and strengthening relations with the United States.

The most challenging foreign policy issues end up on the European Council’s agenda, so the president plays a crucial role in finding the common ground between national positions. Though former president Herman Van Rompuy did not take many foreign policy initiatives, he successfully managed the EU’s response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine in early 2014. With the crisis continuing, Tusk must also get EU leaders to agree on future relations with Russia.

#Tusk and #Mogherini could jointly boost EU foreign policy.

 

Tweet This

Formally speaking, Tusk’s foreign policy responsibility is limited to talking to foreign leaders “without prejudice to the powers of the High Representative,” in the words of the EU treaty. If he wants to do more, his relationship with EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini will therefore be very important.

Will the pair informally divide the world, with Mogherini focusing on the Middle East (an area on which she has previously worked) and Tusk leading on the EU’s Eastern partners? If they can avoid getting in each other’s way, they could jointly boost the effectiveness of EU foreign policy.

To strengthen its global role, the #EU needs a sound economy.

 

Tweet This

New European Council President Donald Tusk can make a difference to EU foreign policy only when the EU’s economy is on a sound footing. As a former Polish prime minister, Tusk is well aware that just as Poland’s international role increased as a result of the country’s strong economic performance, so the EU’s global role will be strengthened if and when the EU resolves its economic problems.

At present, all EU leaders are looking inward, trying to cope with the problems of deflation and appalling levels of unemployment. Staying united on Russia will be the main challenge, and here, Tusk’s experience should come in useful. Trying to do more without a sound economic footing will end in failure.

It is difficult to answer such an unequivocal question. The responsibilities of the president of the European Council are mainly related to the organization of the work of that institution. Foreign policy is formally part of the competences of the EU high representative.

Nevertheless, this does not mean that Donald Tusk, the new president of the European Council, is facing only minor political tasks. Maintaining the EU’s institutional, political, and financial cohesion seems central, particularly at a moment of growing bipolarity between the eurozone and other EU member states.

@eucopresident is uniquely placed to support Central Europe.

 

Tweet This

Moreover, in his new role, Tusk is uniquely placed to support Central European member states in their transformation from net recipients of EU funding to countries that can shape the union’s development and innovation. At the same time, the president’s first declarations indicate that he wants to become involved in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which he understands as a way to lend new impetus to transatlantic links at the economic level. This is a challenge of paramount significance for the EU’s future global position.

In his statements, Tusk has also made references to the Ukraine crisis and to a new opening in the Eastern dimension of the European Neighborhood Policy. Interestingly, he perceives a role for himself in giving substance to the EU energy union project he initiated, which is also important for foreign policy. Yet the effectiveness of his actions on all these maters will depend on his ability to cooperate with the European Commission.

It is tempting to ask who, if not someone like Donald Tusk, could provide fresh impulses toward a truly European foreign and security policy as president of the European Council. During his seven-year reign as prime minister, his native Poland came through the European financial crisis without so much as a scratch. Tusk translated the country’s domestic political stability and economic strength into a very proactive foreign and European policy.

Under #Tusk, Poland came through the crisis without a scratch.

 

Tweet This

Among Poland’s positions during Tusk’s premiership, three stand out that assume particular currency in the context of the fast-emerging confrontation between the West and Russia.

First, Poland has been an ardent supporter of new EU policies toward the Eastern neighborhood and Russia. This support was fueled by a strong sensitivity for the precarious geopolitics of Eastern Europe, for the resurgence of Russian hegemony, and for the risks that hegemony posed to the fragile states of the East.

Second, Poland was an early proponent of a more united European approach in the energy field. The country’s own vulnerability and dependency on Russian energy imports, which are shared by many Central and Eastern European states, have led Warsaw to take domestic measures to diversify energy sources. But Poland also understands that effective energy security can be provided only through Europe-wide cooperation.

Third, Poland has called for stronger security guarantees for itself and other Eastern members of the EU and NATO, as well as for a clearer coordination of security policies between the two organizations. Much to Warsaw’s disappointment, provisions for security writ large remain weak in Europe, while challenges to security are clearly rising rapidly.

In all three fields, Tusk is well prepared and experienced to advance EU efforts. Success in these areas would surely boost EU foreign policy and make it worthy of the name.

Former European Council president Herman Van Rompuy adopted a low profile on foreign policy. His successor, Donald Tusk, will no doubt aim for a stronger role. To succeed, he needs to do four things.

#Tusk has the rank, #Mogherini has the instruments: a match made in heaven.

 

Tweet This

First, he must establish very close cooperation with the new EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini. He has the rank, she has the instruments: a match made in heaven. Tusk and Mogherini should consider shaping EU foreign policy as a joint project and involve each other at every step of the process.

Second, Tusk should make sure that the European Council goes beyond crisis management, provides genuine strategic leadership, and gives a strong impetus toward the further development of the EU’s foreign policy capacities. This requires clever agenda setting and strong efforts of persuasion.

Third, he must use the European External Action Service as a source of analysis and proactive policy advice. A better and shared understanding of international developments will lead to more substantive decisions.

Finally—and this might be the hardest part—Tusk must convince his peers in the European Council to allow him to personally take the lead in tackling some of the most urgent international challenges. Only by building up a personal record of leadership can Tusk gain the necessary credibility to become a serious international player.

As president of the European Council, Donald Tusk brings a new energy to the job—even though his ability to boost EU foreign policy will be constrained by the nature of his office and by the progressive renationalization of foreign policy across Europe.

Still, as the first European Council president from “new Europe,” the former Polish prime minister brings to the table a keen awareness of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is looming ever larger over the EU. The key challenge will be to foster greater unity in perspective and judgment across the EU as to how to respond to Russia.

#Tusk's no. 1 goal should be to reinvigorate transatlantic ties.

 

Tweet This

However, the importance of having a Pole in this position is not merely symbolic, for it introduces a strong regional experience into the debate. Without a doubt, Tusk will bring a much more immediate sensitivity to the crisis than his predecessor did. Tusk could also make his mark by focusing on energy, returning to the idea of an EU energy union—an issue that would inevitably impact on Russian-EU relations.

The most important goal—and one that, if achieved, would ensure him a lasting legacy—should be to reinvigorate Europe’s transatlantic link. That is a priority for Tusk, as he has already indicated that he understands the importance of relations with the United States.

In 2003, at the height of the U.S.-EU feud over the American-led Iraq War, the U.S. House of Congress invited me and a few other European scholars and politicians to debate ideas and options for mending the futile transatlantic clash. I still remember the powerful speech by Radek Sikorski, then a foreign policy analyst, as the highlight of the day. Later Poland’s foreign minister, Sikorski saw the often petulant dispute between America and Europe in the tragic light of his country’s suffering in the twentieth century.

The uniquely Polish experience of being crushed between two totalitarian systems while democracies play for time—perfectly reproduced in the memoirs of Polish World War II resistance fighter Jan Karski, Story of a Secret State: My Report to the World—is still one of the crucial passageways in today’s Europe.

I hope #Tusk will cleanse European diplomacy of fear and complacency.

 

Tweet This

It is often forgotten how much personal experiences shape a leader. German companies brutally lobbied Chancellor Angela Merkel to soften her stand against Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014. She never relented, her own upbringing in East Germany weighing more heavily than any budget considerations.

I hope the same will be true of Donald Tusk, the new president of the European Council. I hope he will speak with a Polish voice, cleansing European diplomacy of fear, complacency, and avarice. I hope he will read (or reread) Karski’s book and echo his voice, soul, horizon. That would be a great service to Poland and to Europe.

The best politicians know that politics is history written in the present. Donald Tusk was such a politician in Poland; he could become one for Europe.

From day one, @eucopresident #Tusk gave off strong foreign policy signals.

 

Tweet This

From day one in his new post as European Council president, Tusk gave off strong foreign policy signals. His short inauguration speech had no scoops on substance. The message was the tone. He spoke about “threats coming from inside and outside” and about the union’s “enemies.” He also said, “Politics has returned to Europe, history is back.”

Still on day one, he phoned U.S. President Barack Obama with a public message in the same vein: transatlantic trade is not just trade, it is also geopolitics. In the two days since then, Tusk has held meetings with the Afghan president and the NATO secretary general and spoken with the Chinese president.

The president of the European Council cannot act alone. The body he chairs is potentially the most powerful in Brussels. To make it work, he must bring 28 national leaders into line and connect their decisions to the EU’s systems and to national diplomacies. This requires preparation, trust building, and drive—qualities that Tusk’s predecessor, Herman Van Rompuy, applied above all to economic policy.

Tusk may want to do for foreign affairs what Van Rompuy did for the euro. The times ask for it—and in Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Tusk will also have somebody in Brussels to work with.