• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUNATO
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Marc Pierini"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Strategic Europe",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Turkey’s Transformation"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Europe",
    "Türkiye",
    "Middle East",
    "Western Europe",
    "France"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Foreign Policy",
    "Democracy",
    "Security",
    "EU"
  ]
}
Strategic Europe logo

Source: Getty

Commentary
Strategic Europe

A Sea Change for Turkey in Europe

Ankara’s latest military offensive in Syria and its domestic agenda are leading to a cul-de-sac with the EU.

Link Copied
By Marc Pierini
Published on Jan 22, 2018
Strategic Europe

Blog

Strategic Europe

Strategic Europe offers insightful analysis, fresh commentary, and concrete policy recommendations from some of Europe’s keenest international affairs observers.

Learn More

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s talks with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on January 5 were intended to mark Turkey’s return to the European stage after eighteen months of acrimonious exchanges. Beyond the protocol choreography, the exact opposite happened: France clearly stated “non” to the prospect of Turkey’s EU accession, joining the positions of the Netherlands and Austria, and followed by a similar announcement from Germany’s pre-coalition partners just a few days later.

Over the past few weeks, Turkey’s position in Europe has undergone a significant sea change, leading to a fresh search for other policy frameworks. However, Ankara’s current focus on military operations in northwest Syria is now likely to relegate EU relations to the back burner.

In Paris, as part of Macron’s straight-talking approach with countries with whom France substantially disagrees, there was a genuine interest in hosting Turkey’s president. Agenda items included fostering trade and defense interests; securing cooperation on counterterrorism and migration; publicly criticizing the rule of law situation in Turkey; rebalancing Ankara’s relationship with Moscow; and avoiding further diplomatic isolation. This real interest came with a price tag: “no” to EU accession.

For Turkey, meanwhile, the visit was part of an “old friends” strategy that suddenly emerged after several months of trading barbs with European leaders. The charm offensive was aimed at France, Germany, and Bulgaria (which currently holds the EU Council presidency). Convergence on general subjects such as fighting terrorism (though defined differently by both parties) and on Jerusalem’s status was underlined. A warm welcome at the Élysée Palace—and the Turkish foreign minister’s cup of tea at his German counterpart’s home the next day—hit the headlines in Turkey’s pro-government media. Optically, Turkey made an apparent comeback from its diplomatic isolation.

But none of this is as easy as it looks given the wholesale dismantling of the rule of law in Turkey since July 2016. Ankara’s strategy—aimed at political survival at home—is to purge the state of Gülen sympathizers and to cleanse the political and civilian landscape of any form of dissent and diversity, mostly through spurious charges. Under an ever-prolonged emergency rule, a massive clampdown on academia, media, civil society, security forces, and business circles has resulted in 152,000 people being dismissed from public jobs and 132,000 people detained, of whom 64,000 have been formally arrested, according to Turkey Purge.

In parallel, a one-man-rule system is being implemented day by day, while an ultra-presidential system was agreed through a highly-contested referendum last April. Recently, more stringent decrees were signed and the independence of the constitutional court was challenged by the government.

As a result, Turkey is now at odds with the principles it had adopted in December 2004 to win its EU candidate country status: the separation of powers, free and fair elections, a free media, an independent judiciary, and a vibrant civil society.

In Europe, the political mood about Turkey has changed massively since late October: the Dutch coalition government will propose alternatives to accession; the Austrian coalition in power will oppose any move toward Turkey joining the EU; Germany’s current pre-coalition agreement excludes progress on accession, visas, and the Customs Union. Despite cozying up with Turkey’s president on January 5, Macron ultimately chose to firmly close the accession road. This now makes for a very different landscape.

Do EU leaders no longer view the Turkish president as a trusted political ally? To a large extent, they do not. Turkey’s authoritarianism is seen as one-way voyage, simply because Erdoğan will not jeopardize his grip on power by returning to the rule of law anytime soon. As long as Turkey’s political leadership undermines the rule of law, brings its domestic political fights to Europe, and routinely uses anti-EU narratives, there can be no political alliance—despite Turkey’s NATO membership. Therefore the question of rekindling accession negotiations doesn’t even arise anymore, despite Ankara’s improbable proclamations that it upholds the rule of law.

Does this means an isolation strategy? No, it is rather a policy adjusted to Ankara’s own political choices. The EU will keep talking to Turkey. Substance and format still have to be decided on the basis of forthcoming European Commission proposals.

On substance, several subjects of mutual interest are on the table: a modernized Customs Union (politically the most difficult item), cooperation on refugees, cooperation on counterterrorism, bilateral investment and joint defense industry projects, and ministerial meetings in technical areas.

Along with this substantive technical agenda, discussing human rights in Turkey and acting on them will be a political must.

Throughout this process, hopefully, the citizens of Turkey will understand that Europeans hold no grudge against their country or against them as a people. This is not a fight of Europe against Turkey. It is about European citizens defending their own democracy and supporting Turkey’s democrats. Ultimately, it is about the people of Turkey choosing the political system they prefer.

On format, some EU countries—Bulgaria first among them—will want to satisfy President Erdoğan’s longing for summits. Such meetings in December 2004 and October 2015, and even the January 5 press conference in Paris, have left sour memories for those politicians present. Extreme caution is therefore in order. A summit would not help to restore the rule of law in Turkey, but would condone massive human rights infringements and bitterly displease EU citizens.

None of the above would likely impress Turkey’s president much, either. What matters to him is his reelection. Apart from military motivations, the current Turkish operation in Syria—dubbed “Olive Branch”—has an overwhelming goal: to ramp up nationalist sentiments and project the Turkish president as the only politician who can steer the country through a dangerous situation. In these circumstances, agreeing with the EU won’t matter much.

About the Author

Marc Pierini

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Marc Pierini is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a European perspective.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    Deciphering Europe’s Relationship with Turkey

      Marc Pierini

  • Commentary
    Europe Doesn’t Like War—for Good Reasons

      Marc Pierini

Marc Pierini
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Marc Pierini
Foreign PolicyDemocracySecurityEUEuropeTürkiyeMiddle EastWestern EuropeFrance

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Strategic Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europe Needs a Strategy for its Turn to New Defense Tech

    Defense tech innovations will be at the heart of Europe’s new security strategy. But so far, Brussels has been making moves without a broader plan, undermining readiness and credibility.

      Raluca Csernatoni

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Is European Diplomacy on Iran Outdated?

    When the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was announced, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy declared their readiness to help demine the Strait of Hormuz and lift nuclear sanctions on Tehran. But does Europe need new tools to recover a diplomatic role?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    France and Germany Need Their Own Situation Room

    The Franco-German relationship is on the rocks again. But unlike previous moments of tension, the epochal changes on the world stage require that both step up investment in their bilateral ties.

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    European Security Strategy: In Search of a New Ambition

    The EU is putting together a new security strategy to meet today’s myriad challenges. But for any proposal to be effective, the union needs to grapple with its identity and ambitions.

      Pierre Vimont

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The Climate Blind Spot in Europe’s New Migration Pact

    The EU’s new migration policy is not suited to today’s realities. With climate change increasingly becoming a driver of displacement, Europe needs to rethink its deterrence-focused approach.

      • Shana Tabak headshot

      Shana Tabak

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.