• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUUkraine
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Judy Dempsey"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Strategic Europe",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Europe’s Eastern Neighborhood"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Russia",
    "Europe",
    "Eastern Europe",
    "Western Europe",
    "Germany"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Foreign Policy",
    "Security",
    "Economy",
    "EU"
  ]
}
Strategic Europe logo

Source: Getty

Commentary
Strategic Europe

Germany’s Russia Complex Enables a Contested Eastern Europe

Russia’s threats to invade Ukraine again should lead to a fundamental change in Berlin’s policy toward Moscow. If not, Eastern Europe will become a contested region that destabilizes the EU.

Link Copied
By Judy Dempsey
Published on Feb 15, 2022
Strategic Europe

Blog

Strategic Europe

Strategic Europe offers insightful analysis, fresh commentary, and concrete policy recommendations from some of Europe’s keenest international affairs observers.

Learn More

At least Olaf Scholz went to Kyiv first, before traveling to Moscow on February 15.

The German chancellor’s visit to Ukraine was part of his diplomatic efforts to avert a new Russian attack on the country.

Despite Moscow’s repeated denials that it has intentions of invading Ukraine, it has stationed around 130,000 troops on the country’s eastern border. It is holding exercises in neighboring Belarus. It has deployed warships in the Black Sea. While Russia insists it is NATO that poses a security threat to Moscow, what Russia is doing to Ukraine is a major security threat. The country is almost encircled by Russian forces.

Averting a war is in the interest of all EU and Eastern European governments. Ukraine has already been scarred several times by bloodshed. The country has undergone immense suffering—from the Soviet-imposed famine of the 1930s and the appalling destruction during World War II by Nazi and Soviet troops, to the deaths of over 13,000 people in 2014 after Russia invaded Eastern Ukraine. With Russia’s military buildup, there seems to be no end in sight to this catalogue of woes. Unless Germany changes its stance.

Over the past few months, much has been written about Germany’s ambiguity toward Russia. This ambiguity is partly based on the complex history that has shaped the relationship between these two countries. But there is only so far that history can go in explaining Germany’s continuing reluctance to spell out what is taking place in Eastern Europe in general and Russia in particular. Eastern Europe is being contested.

As seen by Moscow, countries in the EU’s Eastern neighborhood, including Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, should remain in Russia’s sphere of influence. This is a region that should not move closer to the EU or NATO. It is a region that should be Russia’s security buffer zone.

Were all this to become a reality, Eastern Europe would become a highly unstable region that would deal a heavy cost to both Russia and the EU. That is why Germany has to take a stand about the region’s future and Russia’s role.

Berlin has a moral, political, and economic responsibility to do so. Moral because of what happened during World War II. If President Frank-Walter Steinmeier can argue that Germany bears a special responsibility toward Russia, as he did in 2021, why can’t he say the same about Belarus and Ukraine? Just read Timothy Snyder’s Bloodlands to appreciate how the populations of these countries were massacred during the early 1940s.

The political responsibility complements the moral one. Then there’s the economic aspects. German industry has reaped the benefits of low-cost labor and the geographical proximity of these countries for doing business. Total trade to its Eastern partners increased by 20 percent in 2021 to over €500 billion ($567 billion).

The silence by Germany’s powerful and influential Ost-Ausschuss—or Eastern Committee—to what has been taking place in Belarus over the past two years and how Ukraine is being intimidated today is shameful.

As for German industry’s attitude toward Russia, the ties with their Russian counterparts, particularly President Vladimir Putin and his entourage, have become so close that they influence Berlin’s policy toward Russia.

It’s rare to read or hear from German companies that are doing business in Russia about the erosion of human rights, the closure of non-governmental organizations, the imprisonment of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, the banning of human rights group Memorial that became such a special organization for many Russians who wanted a reckoning with the Stalinist era.

This reticence about Putin’s Russia is even harder to justify given the Russian cyberattacks on the German Bundestag, the murder in 2019 of a Chechen exile in Berlin, and the attempt to kill Navalny with a chemical agent. If German industry chiefs spoke out clearly about what is happening in Russia today, it just might toughen the stance of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party and weaken the influence of its Russia supporters.

The latter never question the kind of system being built in Russia and how it bodes ill for Eastern Europe. These countries, with difficulty, are trying to move toward democracy and closer to the EU.

Russia’s support for Alexander Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus, its continuing meddling in Moldovan politics, its intimidation of Ukraine, and its influence in Armenia and Georgia are about thwarting the Western direction of these countries. They are about putting the brakes on building democratic institutions.

Germany alone cannot influence what happens in Eastern Europe or Russia. But because of its position in the EU and relationship with Russia, it has the economic strength and should have the political compass to take the lead. That leadership requires a political will to link diplomatic efforts with substantial pressure on Russia. Above all, it means Germany’s political and economic establishments supporting the aspirations of Eastern European citizens.

About the Author

Judy Dempsey

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Dempsey is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    Europe Needs to Hear What America is Saying

      Judy Dempsey

  • Commentary
    Babiš’s Victory in Czechia Is Not a Turning Point for European Populists

      Judy Dempsey

Judy Dempsey
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Judy Dempsey
Foreign PolicySecurityEconomyEURussiaEuropeEastern EuropeWestern EuropeGermany

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Strategic Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Win or Lose, Orbán has Broken Hungary’s Democracy

    Hungarians head to the polls on April 12 for an election of national and European consequence. Three different outcomes are on the cards, each with their own implications for the EU.

      Zsuzsanna Szelényi

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Is France Shifting Rightward?

    The far right failed to win big in France’s municipal elections. But that’s not good news for the country’s left wing, which remained disunited while the broader right consolidated its momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential race.

      Catherine Fieschi

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Is it NATO’s Job to Support Trump’s War of Choice?

    Donald Trump has demanded that European allies send ships to the Strait of Hormuz while his war of choice in Iran rages on. He has constantly berated NATO while the alliance’s secretary-general has emphatically supported him.

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Time to Merge the Commission and EEAS

    The EU is structurally incapable of reacting to today’s foreign policy crises. The union must fold the EEAS into the European Commission and create a security council better prepared to take action on the global stage.

      Stefan Lehne

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Russia’s Imperial Retreat Is Europe’s Strategic Opportunity

    The war in Ukraine is costing Russia its leverage overseas. Across the South Caucasus and Middle East, this presents an opportunity for Europe to pick up the pieces and claim its own sphere of influence.

      William Dixon, Maksym Beznosiuk

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.